Table 2.
Subdistribution hazard ratios (SHR) for covariates included in the final clinical prediction model for AKI within 10 yearsa
| Covariates | Full case analysis (n = 337 733), SHR (95% CI) | Multiple imputation model (n = 1 772 618), SHR (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|
| Age, years, per year increase | 1.04 (1.038 to 1.041) | 1.061 (1.060 to 1.062) |
|
| ||
| Sex, female | 0.66 (0.64 to 0.68) | 0.61 (0.60 to 0.63) |
|
| ||
| Systolic blood pressure, per 1 mmHg increase | 1.004 (1.003 to 1.005) | 1.005 (1.004 to 1.006) |
|
| ||
| Diastolic blood pressurea | 1.36 (1.28 to 1.46) | 1.29 (1.23 to 1.35) |
|
| ||
| Cholesterola | 0.77 (0.72 to 0.82) | 0.76 (0.73 to 0.81) |
|
| ||
| Body mass index | ||
| Underweight | Reference | Reference |
| Normal | 0.95 (0.85 to 1.06) | 0.97 (0.82 to 1.14) |
| Overweight | 0.95 (0.85 to 1.07) | 1.06 (0.89 to 1.26) |
| Obese | 1.16 (1.03 to 1.30) | 1.34 (1.11 to 1.62) |
| Morbidly obese | 1.88 (1.67 to 2.12) | 2.50 (2.20 to 2.90) |
|
| ||
| Ethnicity | ||
| White | Reference | Reference |
| Black | 1.23 (1.13 to 1.35) | 1.33 (1.10 to 1.63) |
| Asian (South) | 1.00 (0.92 to 1.09) | 1.18 (0.95 to 1.45) |
| Other | 0.94 (0.87 to 1.02) | 1.02 (0.91 to 1.16) |
|
| ||
| Deprivation score, IMD quintile | ||
| 1 | Reference | Reference |
| 2 | 1.04 (0.99 to 1.09) | 1.08 (1.04 to 1.10) |
| 3 | 1.08 (1.03 to 1.13) | 1.10 (1.07 to 1.14) |
| 4 | 1.18 (1.13 to 1.23) | 1.22 (1.19 to 1.26) |
| 5 | 1.31 (1.25 to 1.37) | 1.37 (1.33 to 1.41) |
|
| ||
| Smoking status | ||
| Non-smoker | Reference | Reference |
| Ex-smoker | 1.17 (1.14 to 1.21) | 1.21 (1.18 to 1.23) |
| Smoker | 1.51 (1.45 to 1.56) | 1.57 (1.52 to 1.61) |
|
| ||
| Electronic frailty index, for every 3.6 deficitsb | 1.10 (1.07 to 1.20) | 1.28 (1.26 to 1.31) |
|
| ||
| Alcohol | ||
| Non-drinker | Reference | Reference |
| Trivial | 0.82 (0.79 to 0.85) | 0.85 (0.83 to 0.89) |
| Light | 0.81 (0.78 to 0.84) | 0.80 (0.76 to 0.85) |
| Moderate | 0.84 (0.80 to 0.89) | 0.82 (0.78 to 0.87) |
| Heavy | 1.15 (1.04 to 1.27) | 1.27 (1.14 to 1.41) |
| Unknown amount | 0.91 (0.87 to 0.95) | 0.88 (0.84 to 0.93) |
|
| ||
| Risk factors | ||
| Chronic kidney disease | 2.10 (2.05 to 2.20) | 2.05 (1.98 to 2.12) |
| Hypotension/syncope | 0.86 (0.81 to 0.91) | 0.87 (0.84 to 0.91) |
| Ischaemic heart disease | 0.93 (0.90 to 0.96) | 0.95 (0.93 to 0.97) |
| Diabetes | 1.15 (1.12 to 1.19) | 1.53 (1.49 to 1.57) |
| Atrial fibrillation | 1.27 (1.21 to 1.34) | 1.19 (1.16 to 1.23) |
|
| ||
| Medications | ||
| ACE Inhibitors | 1.44 (1.40 to 1.49) | 1.54 (1.51 to 1.57) |
| Angiotensin II receptor blockers | 1.38 (1.32 to 1.44) | 1.43 (1.38 to 1.48) |
| Alpha-blockers | 1.19 (1.13 to 1.25) | 1.23 (1.19 to 1.28) |
| Beta-blockers | 1.07 (1.04 to 1.11) | 1.16 (1.13 to 1.19) |
| Calcium channel blockers | 1.13 (1.10 to 1.17) | 1.19 (1.16 to 1.21) |
| Thiazide and thiazide-like diuretics | 0.92 (0.89 to 0.95) | 0.98 (0.95 to 0.99) |
| Other antihypertensives | 1.25 (1.11 to 1.41) | 1.27 (1.17 to 1.37) |
| Opioids | 1.10 (1.07 to 1.41) | 1.16 (1.13 to 1.18) |
| Hypnotics/Benzodiazepines | 1.05 (1.02 to 1.09) | 1.04 (1.02 to 1.06) |
| Antidepressants | 1.04 (0.99 to 1.08) | 1.06 (1.04 to 1.08) |
| Anticholinergic medications | 1.03 (0.99 to 1.07) | 1.03 (1.00 to 1.06) |
The following transformations were applied to specific variables in the model: diastolic blood pressure was transformed using a first-degree polynomial (^–0.5), rescaled, and centred ([diastolic blood pressure/1000]^–0.5) – 3.472411. Age was centred = age – 59.40057. Systolic blood pressure was centred = systolic blood pressure – 143.47. The electronic frailty index was rescaled = (frailty index/0.1). Cholesterol was log transformed and centred = ln(cholesterol) – 1.670416.
SHR per deficit: 1.072 (95% CI = 1.068 to 1.076).
ACE = angiotensin-converting enzyme. AKI = acute kidney injury. IMD = Index of Multiple Deprivation. SHR = subdistribution hazard ratio.