Table 1.

Parameter estimates of the univariate models for the number of deaths.

	Mean	SD	95%CI
Model 1
${\beta }_{01}$	−14.4053	0.5427	[−15.4949; −13.3136]
${\beta }_{11}$	0.0019	0.0011	[−0.0002; 0.0039]
${\sigma }_{v_1}$	0.1684	0.0816	[0.0101; 0.3135]
${\sigma }_{u_1}$	0.5011	0.1057	[0.2875; 0.6979]
${\sigma }_{g_1}$	0.3658	0.0515	[0.2781; 0.4759]
${\sigma }_{{\psi }_1}$	0.9412	0.0232	[0.8964; 0.9885]
Model 2
${\beta }_{01}$	−12.3517	0.0374	[−12.426; −12.2794]
${\beta }_{11}$	0.0019	0.0011	[−0.0002; 0.0042]
${\sigma }_{v_1}$	0.1959	0.0677	[0.0509; 0.3202]
${\sigma }_{u_1}$	0.4831	0.0973	[0.2910; 0.6719]
${\sigma }_{g_1}$	0.3632	0.0505	[0.2786; 0.4770]
${\sigma }_{{\psi }_1}$	0.9404	0.0232	[0.8951; 0.9867]