Table 1. Estimated model parameter distributions (average and 95% quantiles).
| Parameter | Parameter biological meaning | Prior distribution | Estimate range (2.5%-97.5% percentile) |
|---|---|---|---|
| B 0 | Initial number of birds (whole avian community) | U(50,70) | 60.20 (50.44–69.57) |
| a i | Proportion of competent birds among the whole avian community | U(0,1) | 0.25 (0.003–0.91) 1 |
| i Bw | Proportion of immune birds at the beginning of the first simulated season, western subregion | U(0,1) | 0.54 (0.03–0.99)1 |
| i Be | Proportion of immune birds at the beginning of the first simulated season, eastern subregion | U(0,1) | 0.54 (0.04–0.97)1 |
| f 1 | Proportion of mosquitoes’ bites directed to the competent avian species during the early season | U(0,0.5) | 0.35 (0.091–0.49)1 |
| f 2 | Proportion of mosquitoes’ bites directed to the competent avian species during the late season | U(0,f1) | 0.28 (0.025–0.49)1 |
| p | Competence of the competent avian population | U(0,1) | 0.65 (0.14–0.98)1 |
| p MB | Susceptibility of the competent avian population | U(0,1) | 0.69 (0.19–0.99)1 |
| ν B | Recovery rate | U(0,1) | 0.22 (0.002–0.94)1 |
1 MCMC estimate