Fig 3. Comparing the introduction and dispersal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the NYC area.

A: Evolution of (i) the probability p₁ that two circulating lineages drawn at random belong to the same clade/cluster introduced into the study area (solid curves), and (ii) the proportion p₂ computed as the ratio between the number of circulating clusters and the number of phylogenetic branches occurring at the same time across the study area (dashed curves). B: Posterior distributions of the weighted diffusion coefficient (km²/day) estimated for each variant. C: Posterior distributions of the weighted diffusion coefficient estimated for each variant except Iota, which allows a focus on the results obtained for the three other variants. All the results reported in Fig 3 are based on 900 trees sampled from each posterior distribution obtained by discrete (A) or continuous (B-C) phylogeographic inference.