Fig. 1.

Markov model structure. All admitted and hospitalised critically ill adult patients (aged >18 years) with COVID-19 in Tanzania are triaged as severe or critical as per World Health Organisation classifications. Circular arrows represent the construct that a patient can remain in the same health state for more than one cycle. *EECC is an intervention that reduces clinical severity between severe and critical patients. ACC constitutes EECC in combination with more advanced organ support. ^bACC only reduces mortality in critically ill patients. EECC is delivered to both severe and critical COVID-19 patients, whereas ACC is only delivered to critical COVID-19 patients. Severe patients will, by definition, progress to the critical state before dying. COVID-19 coronavirus disease 2019, EECC Essential Emergency and Critical Care, ACC advanced critical care