Fig. 5. Proportion of stochastic simulations reaching elimination when transmission reductions on Zanzibar and mainland Tanzania are combined.

The central line is the proportion of n = 500 simulations that reached elimination (3 years with zero indigenous infections). The shaded area indicates 95% confidence interval (calculated assuming a binomial proportion using a Normal approximation interval). These simulations consider that baseline interventions are in place (RCD with follow-up of 35% of cases at the index household level) and consider the impact of reducing the transmission rate on mainland Tanzania and combining this with a reduction in the transmission rate (TR) on the islands of Zanzibar. Interventions are introduced at time point 0.