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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2023 May 18.
Published in final edited form as: NEJM Evid. 2022 Jan 10;1(3):10.1056/evidoa2100057. doi: 10.1056/evidoa2100057

Table 2.

Covid-19 Case and Death Rates among Fully Vaccinated Persons by Time since Vaccination for 15 U.S. Jurisdictions, from August 1 to September 4, 2021

Characteristic January to February March to April May to June July
No. of Covid-19 cases/deaths Covid-19 case/death rate per 100,000 person-wk* No. of Covid-19 cases/deaths Covid-19 case/death rate per 100,000 person-wk* No. of Covid-19 cases/deaths Covid-19 case/death rate per 100,000 person-wk* No. of Covid-19 cases/deaths Covid-19 case/death rate per 100,000 person-wk*
15 jurisdictions
 Overall cases 67,954 168.8 (167.5–170.1) 145,059 123.5 (122.8–124.1) 54,909 83.6 (82.9–84.3) 7070 63.1 (61.6–64.6)
 Age — yr
  12–17 50 164.5 (124.7–217.1) 1429 139.0 (132.0–146.4) 5060 68.6 (66.7–70.5) 1074 47.7 (44.9–50.6)
  18–49 25,621 219.8 (217.2–222.6) 64,217 156.5 (155.3–157.7) 34,157 91.4 (90.5–92.4) 4036 68.0 (65.9–70.1)
  50–64 12,703 166.8 (163.9–169.7) 43,745 118.1 (117.0–119.2) 11,478 76.0 (74.6–77.4) 1359 64.8 (61.5–68.4)
  65–79 19,989 134.8 (132.9–136.6) 28,760 93.2 (92.1–94.3) 3311 69.5 (67.2–71.9) 461 61.3 (56–67.2)
  ≥80 9591 156.7 (153.6–159.9) 6908 91.8 (89.7–94) 903 84.5 (79.1–90.2) 140 81.8 (69.3–96.6)
 Vaccine product
  BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) 44,898 201.6 (199.7–203.4) 83,247 139.7 (138.8–140.7) 34,072 92.2 (91.3–93.2) 4186 58.0 (56.3–59.8)
  mRNA-1273 (Moderna) 23,056 128.2 (126.6–129.9) 39,271 85.3 (84.5–86.2) 14,338 61.4 (60.4–62.4) 1114 40.5 (38.2–42.9)
  Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen–Johnson & Johnson) NA 22,541 189.7 (187.3–192.2) 6499 120.6 (117.7–123.6) 1770 142.6 (136.1–149.4)
 Vaccine product and recipient age — yr
 BNT162b2
  12–17 50 164.5 (124.7–217.1) 1429 139.0 (132.0–146.4) 5060 68.6 (66.7–70.5) 1074 47.7 (44.9–50.6)
  18–49 16,817 254.8 (251.0–258.7) 38,013 165.2 (163.6–166.9) 20,899 104.4 (103–105.8) 2233 66.0 (63.3–68.8)
  50–64 8347 202.4 (198.1–206.8) 24,896 129.2 (127.6–130.9) 6135 86.5 (84.4–88.7) 620 55.4 (51.2–59.9)
  65–79 13,035 162.5 (159.7–165.3) 15,433 115.6 (113.8–117.4) 1552 76.4 (72.7–80.3) 197 52.1 (45.3–59.9)
  ≥80 6649 190.1 (185.6–194.7) 3476 118.6 (114.7–122.6) 426 99.3 (90.3–109.1) 62 76.5 (59.7–98.2)
 mRNA-1273
  18–49 8804 174.2 (170.6–177.9) 14,168 114.1 (112.2–116.0) 9410 67.1 (65.7–68.4) 699 41.2 (38.3–44.4)
  50–64 4356 124.7 (121.0–128.4) 11,311 82.5 (81.0–84.0) 3500 53.1 (51.4–54.9) 265 37.4 (33.2–42.2)
  65–79 6954 102.1 (99.7–104.5) 10,937 69.4 (68.1–70.7) 1123 50.5 (47.6–53.5) 109 38.7 (32.1–46.7)
  ≥80 2942 112.2 (108.2–116.3) 2855 68.9 (66.5–71.5) 305 60.4 (54.0–67.6) 41 60.2 (44.3–81.8)
 Ad26.COV2.S
  18–49 NA 12,036 214.1 (210.3–218) 3848 116.1 (112.5–119.8) 1104 128.7 (121.3–136.5)
  50–64 NA 7538 185.5 (181.4–189.8) 1843 128.6 (122.8–134.6) 474 175.7 (160.6–192.3)
  65–79 NA 2390 137.0 (131.6–142.6) 636 125.4 (116.0–135.5) 155 168.9 (144.3–197.7)
  ≥80 NA 577 127.8 (117.8–138.7) 172 127.5 (109.8–148) 37 167.9 (121.6–231.7)
 Region
  South 34,973 221.4 (219.1–223.8) 74,808 178.9 (177.6–180.2) 28,941 128.9 (127.4–130.4) 4266 94.3 (91.5–97.2)
  West 9138 164.7 (161.3–168.1) 16,396 105.3 (103.7–106.9) 5562 76.5 (74.5–78.5) 788 55.8 (52.0–59.8)
  Northeast 9208 104.9 (102.8–107) 25,758 80.9 (79.9–81.9) 10,602 48.5 (47.6–49.5) 987 30.1 (28.2–32.0)
  Midwest 14,635 144.4 (142.1–146.8) 28,097 99.4 (98.3–100.6) 9804 69.5 (68.1–70.9) 1029 51.8 (48.7–55.1)
14 jurisdictions
 Overall deaths 1512 4.00 (3.80–4.20) 1779 1.62 (1.55–1.7) 376 0.6 (0.54–0.67) 54 0.5 (0.38–0.66)
 Age — yr
  12–17 0 0 1 0.11 (0.01–0.75)‡ 0 0 0 0
  18–49 9 0.08 (0.04–0.16) 44 0.11 (0.09–0.15) 17 0.05 (0.03–0.08) 5 0.09 (0.04–0.21)
  50–64 58 0.81 (0.63–1.05) 286 0.82 (0.73–0.92) 90 0.63 (0.51–0.78) 11 0.55 (0.3–0.99)
  65–79 462 3.29 (3.00–3.60) 754 2.62 (2.44–2.82) 151 3.3 (2.81–3.87) 26 3.59 (2.44–5.27)
  ≥80 983 17.06 (16.02–18.16) 694 9.96 (9.25–10.73) 118 11.46 (9.57–13.72) 12 7.28 (4.13–12.82)
 Vaccine product
  BNT162b2 1135 5.49 (5.18–5.82) 869 1.55 (1.45–1.66) 148 0.42 (0.36–0.49) 15 0.22 (0.13–0.36)
  mRNA-1273 377 2.2 (1.99–2.43) 600 1.4 (1.3–1.52) 127 0.57 (0.48–0.68) 9 0.34 (0.18–0.65)
  Ad26.COV2.S NA 310 2.8 (2.5–3.13) 101 1.97 (1.62–2.39) 30 2.52 (1.76–3.6)
 Vaccine product and recipient age — yr
 BNT162b2
  12–17 0 0 1 0.11 (0.01–0.75) 0 0 0 0
  18–49 5 0.08 (0.03–0.20) 20 0.09 (0.06–0.14) 6 0.03 (0.01–0.07)‡ 2 0.06 (0.02–0.25)
  50–64 38 0.99 (0.72–1.36) 124 0.68 (0.57–0.81) 34 0.51 (0.36–0.71) 6 0.56 (0.25–1.25)
  65–79 318 4.26 (3.82–4.76) 378 3.03 (2.74–3.35) 59 3.02 (2.34–3.90) 5 1.37 (0.57–3.3)
  ≥80 774 23.55 (21.94–25.26) 346 12.72 (11.45–14.13) 49 11.89 (8.98–15.73) 2 2.56 (0.64–10.26)
 mRNA-1273
  18–49 4 0.08 (0.03–0.22) 10 0.09 (0.05–0.16) 10 0.07 (0.04–0.14) 0 0
  50–64 20 0.60 (0.39–0.94) 70 0.54 (0.43–0.69) 28 0.45 (0.31–0.66) 0 0
  65–79 144 2.19 (1.86–2.57) 252 1.73 (1.53–1.95) 47 2.19 (1.65–2.91) 6 2.20 (0.99–4.89)
  ≥80 209 8.44 (7.37–9.67) 268 7.03 (6.24–7.93) 42 8.60 (6.36–11.64) 3 4.55 (1.47–14.11)
 Ad26.COV2.S
  18–49 NA 14 0.27 (0.16–0.45) 1 0.03 (0–0.22) 3 0.36 (0.12–1.12)
  50–64 NA 92 2.44 (1.99–3.00) 28 2.08 (1.43–3.01) 5 1.96 (0.82–4.71)
  65–79 NA 124 7.38 (6.19–8.80) 45 9.33 (6.97–12.5) 15 17.24 (10.39–28.59)
  ≥80 NA 80 18.29 (14.69–22.77) 27 20.9 (14.33–30.48) 7 33.37 (15.91–69.99)
 Region
  South 1142 7.23 (6.82–7.66) 1285 3.07 (2.91–3.25) 280 1.25 (1.11–1.4) 44 0.97 (0.72–1.31)
  West 102 1.84 (1.51–2.23) 130 0.83 (0.7–0.99) 31 0.43 (0.3–0.61) 3 0.21 (0.07–0.66)
  Northeast 92 1.05 (0.85–1.29) 164 0.51 (0.44–0.60) 34 0.16 (0.11–0.22) 4 0.12 (0.05–0.32)
  Midwest 176 2.28 (1.97–2.65) 200 0.97 (0.84–1.11) 31 0.28 (0.20–0.40) 3 0.20 (0.06–0.61)
*

Rates for counts less than 15 may be unstable and should be interpreted with caution. NA denotes not applicable.

Regions comprise the following jurisdictions: South (Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee), West (Arizona, Idaho, New Mexico, and Utah), Northeast (Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York City), and Midwest (Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, and Wisconsin). Wisconsin did not contribute death data due to lack of linkage between vital records and COVID-19 case surveillance.

Rates were calculated using person-weeks as denominator, and 95% confidence intervals provided in parentheses. The widths of the intervals have not been adjusted for multiplicity and any of the inferences drawn may not be reproducible.