Table 3.
Incidence rates of adult obesity by baseline weight status
| Normal Weight |
Overweight |
IRR for overweight vs. normal weight | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence | IRR | Incidence | IRR | ||
| Overall | 8.8 (8.1, 9.6) | 62.1 (58.8, 65.3) | 7.0 (6.3, 7.7) | ||
| Sex | |||||
| Females | 10.0 (8.9, 11.0) | Ref | 67.3 (61.9, 72.6) | Ref | 6.8 (5.8, 7.7) |
| Males | 7.6 (6.6, 8.6) | 0.8 (0.7, 0.9) | 55.0 (51.7, 58.2) | 0.8 (0.7, 0.9) | 7.3 (6.3, 8.2) |
| Race | |||||
| White | 8.4 (7.6, 9.2) | Ref | 59.4 (56.0, 62.9) | Ref | 7.1 (6.3, 7.8) |
| Black | 13.8 (9.8, 17.8) | 1.7 (1.2, 2.3) | 87.2 (77.9, 96.5) | 1.4 (1.3, 1.6) | 6.3 (4.5, 8.2) |
| Other | 9.4 (6.5, 12.3) | 1.1 (0.8, 1.5) | 62.4 (49.4, 75.3) | 1.0 (0.8, 1.2) | 6.6 (4.5, 8.8) |
| Age group | |||||
| 20–29 y | 9.9 (8.3, 10.5) | Ref | 97.0 (88.5, 105.4) | Ref | 9.8 (8.0, 11.6) |
| 30–39 y | 6.1 (4.3, 7.8) | 0.6 (0.4, 0.9) | 59.3 (53.1, 65.6) | 0.6 (0.6, 0.7) | 9.8 (6.9, 12.7) |
| 40–49 y | 4.9 (3.5, 6.4) | 0.5 (0.4, 0.7) | 54.0 (47.6, 60.5) | 0.5 (0.5, 0.6) | 11.0 (7.3, 14.6) |
| 50–59 y | 3.3 (1.6, 5.0) | 0.3 (0.2, 0.6) | 46.3 (41.3, 51.3) | 0.5 (0.4, 0.5) | 13.9 (6.8, 21.0) |
| 60–69 y | 2.7 (1.0, 4.5) | 0.3 (0.1, 0.6) | 33.8 (28.3, 39.2) | 0.3 (0.3, 0.4) | 12.3 (4.5, 20.1) |
| 70+ y | 4.6 (1.7, 7.4) | 0.5 (0.3, 0.9) | 27.7 (23.6, 31.9) | 0.3 (0.2, 0.3) | 6.1 (2.5, 9.6) |
| Education | |||||
| < High school | 16.2 (12.4, 20.1) | 2.3 (1.7, 2.9) | 68..4 (57.9, 79.0) | 1.3 (1.1, 1.5) | 4.2 (3.0, 5.4) |
| High school | 12.7 (10.3, 15.0) | 1.7 (1.4, 2.0) | 71.6 (65.9, 77.2) | 1.2 (1.1, 1.4) | 5.7 (4.5, 6.8) |
| > High school | 7.1 (6.4, 7.8) | Ref | 58.1 (54.0, 62.2) | Ref | 8.2 (7.1, 9.2) |
| n | 7379 | 6509 | |||
| New cases | 800 | 3133 | |||
| PYs | 70,549 | 45,248 | |||
Weight status is at first anthropometric record. Normal weight is defined as a BMI <25 kg/m2, overweight is defined as a BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 and <30 kg/m2, and obesity is defined as the first time a person has a body mass index ≥30 kg/m2. IRR, incidence rate ratio; PYs, person-years of follow-up; Ref, reference. Incidence is calculated as the incidence rate of new cases per 1000 PYs of follow-up (95% CIs) using Poisson models. Overall incidence rates are adjusted for sex, race, and age. Sex-specific rates are adjusted for age and race. Age-specific rates are adjusted for race and sex. Race-specific rates are adjusted for sex and age. All incidence rates are weighted using survey weights, stratum, and cluster to represent the US population between 2001 and 2017.