Table 1.
Predictive scores for new-onset atrial fibrillation.
| Study (Ref) |
Cases /
Number of Pts |
Age (Years) | Follow-up, Years | Database/Type of Study | Variables/ Key Findings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGE-AF score [3] (5-year risk) |
1.771/18.556 | 46-94yrs | 5yrs | ARIC, CHS, FHS/ Prospective Cohort Study | C index of 0.77 (0.75-0.78)/ age, ethnicity, height, weight, SBP/DBP, current smoking, HT treatment, DM, HF, myocardial infarction, |
| FHS score [4] (10-year risk) |
457/4.764 | 60.9 (45-95)yrs | 10yrs | FHS/ Cohort Study | C index of 0.78 (0.76-0.80)/ Age sex, significant murmur, HF, SBP, HT treatment, body mass index, PR interval |
| ARIC score [5] (10-year risk) |
616/14.546 | 45-64yrs | 10yrs | ARIC/ Prospective Cohort | C index of 0.78/ Age, ethnicity, height, smoking, SBP, HT therapy, pericardial murmur, left ventricular hypertrophy, left atrium enlargement, DM, HF, CAD |
| C2HEST score [6] (1-year risk model) |
14.095/ 240.459 | N/A | 7.9±11.5mths | French nationwide study/ Retrospective cohort study | C index of 0.734 (0.732-0.736)/ CAD or COPD, HT, elderly, systolic HF, thyroid disease |
| C2HEST score [7] | 921/471.446 | 47 ± 16yrs | 11(4.1 ± 3.5)yrs | Chinese Yunnan Insurance Database/ Cohort Study | C index of 0.75 (0.73-0.77)/ CAD or COPD, HT, elderly, systolic HF, thyroid disease |
| WHS score [8] (10-year risk model) |
616/19.940 | 52.9 (49-59) yrs | 14.5yrs | Women’s Health Study/ Prospective Cohort study | C index of 0.72 (0.68-0.75)/ Age, weight, height, SBP, alcohol use, smoking |
| MHS score [9] (10-year risk model) |
2.791/145.182 | 63yrs | 10yrs | Maccabi Healthcare services/ Prospective Cohort Study | C index of 0.75 (0.74-0.76)/ Age, Sex, Body mass index, myocardial infarction, PAD, HT therapy, SBP, COPD, autoimmune/inflammatory disease, age to HF |
| JMC score [10] (7-year risk model) |
349/65.984 | 52yrs | 5.5yrs | Retrospective cohort study | C index of 0.77/ Age, waist circumference, DBP, alcohol consumption, heart rate, cardiac murmur |
| Shandong score [11] | 134/33.186 | 56.69 ± 9.85 years (45-85) years | 2.6 years | Shandong multi-center health check-up longitudinal study/ Prospective cohort study | C index of 0.77/ Age, sex, CAD, HT |
| AI-ECG model output [12] | 1.936 | 75.8 (70.4-81.8) years | 7.4 years (4.7-10.9) | Mayo Clinic Study of Aging/ Prospective Cohort Study | C index of 0.69 (0.66-0.72)/ AI-ECG algorithm |
| EHR-AF [13] (5-year risk) |
14.334/ 412.085 | 45-95 years | 5 years | Partners HealthCare System Research Patient Data Registry | C index of 0.777 (0.771-0783)/ male sex, age, race, smoking, height, weight, DBP, HT, hyperlipidemia, HF, CAD, valvular disease, previous stroke/TIA, PAD, chronic kidney disease, and hypothyroidism |
Abbreviations: Pts, Patients: SBP, Systolic Blood Pressure: DBP, Diastolic Blood Pressure: HT, Hypertension: DM, Diabetes Mellitus: HF, Heart Failure: CAD, Coronary Artery Disease: COPD, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: PAD, Peripheral Artery Disease: TIA, Transient Ischemic Attack: Mths, Months: Yrs, Years