Table 4.
Summary of Bayesian Analysis of Test Performance According to Self-Reported Confidence Levels (%)
| Test | # Q | Avg score | Most confident | Partially confident | Least confident | Blunder | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|||||||||
| q 1 | p 1 | q 2 | p 2 | q 3 | p 3 | (1–p1) | |||
|
| |||||||||
| A | 40 | 71.5 | 47.8 (45.4, 50.1) | 87.1 (84.7, 89.3) | 37.6 (35.3, 39.9) | 61.9 (58.1, 65.7) | 14.7 (13.0, 16.4) | 41.2 (35.2, 47.4) | 12.9 (10.7, 15.3) |
| B | 40 | 69.5 | 53.4 (51.3, 55.4) | 83.7 (81.6, 85.7) | 33.2 (31.3, 35.1) | 54.7 (51.1, 58.1) | 13.4 (12.0, 14.8) | 37.2 (31.9, 42.6) | 16.3 (14.3, 18.4) |
| C | 35 | 66.2 | 45.1 (42.6, 47.7) | 82.7 (79.8, 85.6) | 33.3 (30.9, 35.7) | 57.0 (52.5, 61.3) | 21.6 (19.5, 23.7) | 33.9 (28.6, 38.9) | 17.3 (14.4, 20.2) |
| D | 37 | 64.6 | 48.1 (45.6, 50.6) | 79.2 (76.2, 82.1) | 34.1 (31.7, 36.5) | 55.8 (51.4, 0.6) | 17.7 (15.7, 19.6) | 36.8 (30.9, 42.6) | 20.8 (17.9, 23.8) |
| E | 20 | 74.0 | 46.7 (42.6, 50.7) | 86.8 (82.6, 90.6) | 35.0 (31.1, 38.9) | 69.8 (63.4, 75.9) | 18.4 (15.3, 21.6) | 42.6 (33.4, 51.9) | 13.2 (9.4, 17.4) |
| F | 26 | 80.8 | 63.3 (59.7, 67.1) | 88.4 (85.3, 91.4) | 22.8 (19.6, 26.0) | 52.2 (41.9, 62.2) | 13.9 (11.3, 16.6) | 52.2 (41.9, 62.2) | 11.6 (8.6, 14.7) |
| G | 20 | 72.2 | 48.0 (44.2, 51.9) | 85.2 (81.3, 89.1) | 30.2 (26.6, 33.7) | 62.1 (55.3, 68.9) | 21.8 (18.7, 25.0) | 56.0 (47.8, 64.0) | 14.8 (10.9, 18.7) |
| H | 25 | 68.7 | 48.4 (43.7, 53.1) | 82.2 (77.2, 87.5) | 35.5 (31.1, 40.1) | 59.5 (51.7, 67.2) | 16.1 (12.6, 19.6) | 37.2 (25.9, 48.1) | 17.8 (12.5, 22.8) |
|
| |||||||||
| Mean | 30 | 70.9 | 50.1 | 84.4 | 32.7 | 59.1 | 17.2 | 42.1 | 15.6 |
Note. Test performance p was stratified by self-reported confidence data q for all eight tests according to Model (5). Posterior estimates of confidence levels q and their associated success rates p are given with 95% credible intervals (in gray).