Table 7.

Gap analysis for current levels of frost resistant crop production in New Zealand, relative to dietary energy requirements for the whole New Zealand population in various scenarios*

Base case and nutrition scenarios	Nuclear war but otherwise business-as-usual agricultural productivity (Scenario NW0)	8% reduction in agricultural productivity from nuclear winter (Scenario NW1)	28% reduction in agricultural productivity from nuclear winter (Scenario NW2)	61% reduction in agricultural productivity from nuclear winter (Scenario NW3)
Base case: Meeting dietary energy requirements for the whole New Zealand population (current levels) from frost resistant crops	74.4%	68.5%	53.7%	29.3%
Scenario A: As per the base case above but using plausibly acceptable lower levels of dietary energy (10% less)	82.7%	76.1%	59.7%	32.5%
Scenario B: As per the base case but assuming only 50% of both dietary energy and protein intakes from frost resistant crops (assuming the rest of the food is obtained additional sources of frost sensitive crops and grass-fed livestock products – see Methods)	149% (oversupply)	137% (oversupply)	107% (oversupply)	58.5%

*Based on the crops and yield data in Table 5, for all frost resistant crops together, except those with missing production data for New Zealand: sugar beet, rye, and swede. Given that sugar beet (or the similar fodder beet) production is probably non-trivial in New Zealand, the results in this table are probably underestimates.