Fig. 3. Lockdown without testing.

Depth and duration of optimal lockdown and the related impact on the economy and on the epidemic of varying the delay in the policy response: two weeks (blue), 4 weeks (orange), 8 weeks (green), and 16 weeks (red). In black, we illustrate the benchmark laissez-faire case (calibrated on the right-hand axis). The figures show (A) the optimal duration and intensity of the lockdown, (B) the related flow of hospitalizations, (C) the cumulative production (from time 0 to each period) in terms of the cumulative production in an epidemic-free dynamics, and (D) the utility loss (from time 0 to each period) due to epidemic-related deaths weighted by the parameter θ. The dashed and dotted lines around the 16-week delay illustrate the sensitivity of lockdown to θ, the index that parameterizes the value of human life. The values of the economic and epidemiological parameters are described in Table 1.