Fig. 4. Lockdown without testing: Effects of variations in infectious rate and in the transition rates.

Impact of varying the transmission rate and duration of infectivity rates (from E₂ to I₁ and from I₁ to R) on the size of the epidemic and the optimal lockdown duration. (A) Changes in production (relative to initial pre-epidemic production). (B) The number of hospitalized individuals for different values of the transmission rate β. (C and D) The same variables for different durations of infectivity ϕ₂ (transition from E₂ to I₁) and δ₁ (transition from I₁ to R). Values of the rest of the economic and epidemiological parameters are described in Table 1.