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. 2023 May 25;21(5):e3002118. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3002118

Fig 4. A comparison of daily deaths to swab positivity as measured by REACT-1, by age group.

Fig 4

Daily swab positivity for all 19 rounds of the REACT-1 study (black points with 95% credible intervals, left hand y-axis) with P-spline estimates for swab positivity (solid black line, shaded area is 95% credible interval) for (A) those aged 64 years and under, and (B) those aged 65 years and over. (A) Daily deaths for those aged 64 years and under in England (red points, right hand y-axis) and corresponding P-spline model estimates for the expected number of deaths (solid red line, shaded area is 95% credible interval, right hand y-axis). The black vertical dashed line on 10 August 2021 splits the data into 2 periods: rounds 1–13 and rounds 14–19 of REACT-1. During rounds 1–13, daily deaths have been shifted by 24 days backwards in time along the x-axis. During rounds 14–19, daily deaths have been shifted by 16 days backwards in time along the x-axis. The 2 y-axes have been scaled using the population size and best-fit scaling parameter from the time-delay model fit to rounds 1–7 of REACT-1. (B) Daily deaths for those aged 65 years and over in England (red points, right hand y-axis) and corresponding P-spline model estimates for the expected number of deaths (solid red line, shaded area is 95% credible interval, right hand y-axis). The black vertical dashed line on 10 August 2021 splits the data into 2 periods: rounds 1–13 and rounds 14–19 of REACT-1. During rounds 1–13, daily deaths have been shifted by 24 days backwards in time along the x-axis. During rounds 14–19, daily deaths have been shifted by 19 days backwards in time along the x-axis. The 2 y-axes have been scaled using the population size and best-fit scaling parameter from the time-delay model fit to rounds 1–7 of REACT-1. Data supporting this figure can be found in S2 Data.