Table 4.
Sensitivity Analysis for Among NASH Cohort, Stratified by the Presence of Obesity Compared With Base Values.
| Input (Range) |
Base Values | Change (%) in NASH prevalence in 2039 (lower to upper bound) |
Change (%) in Cumulative Liver-specific Deaths (lower to upper bound) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence | Obese | Normal | All | Obese | Normal | All | |
| APC, 0%–9.7% | 1.93% | −19.23 to 162.36 | −16.20 to 131.57 | −18.31 to 153.04 | −6.19 to 40.97 | −4.41 to 27.99 | −5.75 to 37.77 |
| Transition Probabilities | |||||||
| Progression | |||||||
| F0 to F1, 0%–10% | 5.78% | 0.74 to −0.32 | 0.86 to −0.38 | 0.77 to −0.33 | −0.22 to −0.44 | −3.69 to −0.05 | −1.07 to −0.35 |
| F1 to F2, 0%–10% | 2.97% | 0.78 to −1.24 | 0.75 to −1.18 | 0.77 to −1.22 | −4.90 to 7.83 | −7.46 to 9.74 | −5.53 to 8.30 |
| F2 to F3, 0%–10% | 3.93% | 0.24 to −0.26 | 0.07 to −0.06 | 0.19 to −0.20 | −4.36 to 4.69 | −4.17 to 2.52 | −4.31 to 4.16 |
| F3 to CC, 0%–15% | 10.55% | 1.12 to −0.33 | 0.52 to −0.18 | 0.94 to −0.29 | −17.02 to 5.16 | −13.46 to 3.68 | −16.14 to 4.80 |
| CC to DCC, 0%–15% | 9.29% | 1.63 to −0.58 | 0.66 to −0.29 | 1.34 to −0.49 | −29.99 to 11.10 | −19.81 to 7.82 | −27.49 to 10.29 |
| Regression | |||||||
| F1 to F0, 0%–10% | 3.23% | −0.19 to 0.38 | −0.24 to 0.41 | −0.21 to 0.39 | −0.58 to −0.61 | −0.77 to −2.70 | −0.63 to −1.12 |
| F2 to F1, 0%–10% | 5.45% | −0.79 to 0.54 | −0.52 to 0.34 | −0.71 to 0.48 | 4.61 to −3.91 | 3.64 to −4.71 | 4.37 to −4.11 |
| F3 to F2, 0%–10% | 8.09% | −0.14 to 0.06 | −0.06 to 0.03 | −0.11 to 0.05 | 2.84 to −1.25 | 2.52 to −2.27 | 2.76 to −1.50 |
| CC to F3, 0%–10% | 7.63% | −0.04 to 0.14 | −0.26 to 0.08 | −0.36 to 0.12 | 7.03 to −2.54 | 5.79 to −3.27 | 6.73 to −2.72 |
| Change (%) in Proportion of Advanced Liver Disease in 2039 (lower to upper bound) | Change (%) in Cumulative Cardiac-specific Deaths (lower to upper bound) |
||||||
| APC, 0%–9.7% | 1.93% | −15.23 to 117.36 | −11.16 to 80.72 | −14.10 to 107.15 | −14.17 to 108.86 | −10.28 to 74.48 | −13.25 to 100.65 |
| Transition Probabilities | |||||||
| Progression | |||||||
| F0 to F1, 0%–10% | 5.78% | −2.02 to −2.23 | −5.59 to −1.95 | −3.01 to −2.15 | −0.13 to −0.69 | −4.99 to −0.01 | −1.29 to −0.53 |
| F1 to F2, 0%–10% | 2.97% | −4.06 to 3.06 | −4.71 to 2.75 | −4.24 to 2.97 | −6.91 to 9.99 | −10.71 to 13.31 | −7.82 to 10.79 |
| F2 to F3, 0%–10% | 3.93% | −24.74 to 24.03 | −20.88 to 18.21 | −23.66 to 22.41 | −6.64 to 6.7 | −6.13 to 4.09 | −6.52 to 6.08 |
| F3 to CC, 0%–15% | 10.55% | −3.79 to 1.07 | −5.46 to 1.96 | −4.25 to 1.32 | −20.07 to 5.65 | −18.75 to 5.29 | −19.76 to 5.56 |
| CC to DCC, 0%–15% | 9.29% | 12.29 to −4.28 | 5.45 to −2.25 | 10.38 to −3.72 | −32.9 to 10.64 | −24.46 to 8.95 | −30.88 to 10.24 |
| Regression | |||||||
| F1 to F0, 0%–10% | 3.23% | −2.90 to −3.64 | −3.28 to −6.25 | −3.01 to −4.36 | −0.94 to −0.64 | −0.86 to −3.42 | −0.92 to −1.30 |
| F2 to F1, 0%–10% | 5.45% | 1.35 to −5.89 | −0.96 to −6.50 | 0.71 to −6.06 | 6.43 to −5.14 | 5.39 to −6.07 | 6.18 to −5.36 |
| F3 to F2, 0%–10% | 8.09% | 13.50 to −6.19 | 20.26 to −8.67 | 15.38 to −6.89 | 3.85 to −1.67 | 4.41 to −3.01 | 3.99 to −1.99 |
| CC to F3, 0%–10% | 7.63% | −1.24 to −3.68 | −0.95 to −5.27 | −1.16 to −4.12 | 8.92 to −3.22 | 9.55 to −4.47 | 9.07 to −3.52 |
| Change (%) in Cumulative NASH attributable Healthcare Cost (lower to upper bound) | Change (%) in NASH attributable Healthcare Cost per Patient in 2039 (%) (lower to upper bound) | ||||||
| APC, 0%–9.7% | 1.93% | −8.59 to 59.43 | −7.25 to 48.93 | −8.23 to 56.56 | 3.33 to −11.09 | 2.93 to −10.34 | 4.25 to −13.67 |
| Transition Probabilities | |||||||
| Progression | |||||||
| F0 to F1, 0%–10% | 5.78% | 1.02 to −1.16 | 0.45 to −0.87 | 0.86 to −1.08 | 0.46 to −0.99 | −0.31 to −0.68 | 0.28 to −0.92 |
| F1 to F2, 0%–10% | 2.97% | −1.30 to 1.60 | −0.96 to 1.07 | −1.21 to 1.45 | −2.54 to 3.33 | −2.24 to 2.82 | −2.47 to 3.21 |
| F2 to F3, 0%–10% | 3.93% | −5.53 to 5.86 | −3.68 to 3.68 | −5.02 to 5.27 | −7.32 to 7.45 | −4.86 to 4.59 | −6.71 to 6.75 |
| F3 to CC, 0%–15% | 10.55% | −15.22 to 4.60 | −11.14 to 4.01 | −14.11 to 4.44 | −17.51 to 5.13 | −13.93 to 4.90 | −16.7 to 5.12 |
| CC to DCC, 0%–15% | 9.29% | −3.96 to 1.46 | −2.55 to 1.29 | −3.58 to 1.41 | −4.76 to 1.66 | −3.18 to 1.51 | −4.59 to 1.70 |
| Regression | |||||||
| F1 to F0, 0%–10% | 3.23% | −1.06 to −0.18 | −0.90 to −0.47 | −1.02 to −0.26 | −1.12 to −0.53 | −0.96 to −0.95 | −1.09 to −0.63 |
| F2 to F1, 0%–10% | 5.45% | 0.78 to −1.66 | 0.09 to −1.24 | 0.59 to −1.55 | 2.02 to −2.59 | 0.82 to −1.97 | 1.78 to −2.48 |
| F3 to F2, 0%–10% | 8.09% | 3.31 to −1.47 | 3.72 to −1.53 | 3.42 to −1.49 | 4.11 to −1.78 | 4.93 to −1.96 | 4.35 to −1.83 |
| CC to F3, 0%–10% | 7.63% | 5.40 to −2.26 | 5.37 to −2.16 | 5.39 to −2.23 | 6.53 to −2.69 | 7.27 to −2.77 | 6.76 to −2.73 |
APC, annual percent change; NASH, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis.
Data displayed as % change from the outputs of a model using a base value (lower to upper bound).
Lower bound denotes % change from the outputs of a model using a parameter of 0%.
Upper bound denotes % change from outputs of a model using a parameter of the highest value in the specified range.