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. 2023 May 27;23:988. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-15936-w

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© The Author(s) 2023

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 2 — Wild-type epidemic wave in Victoria in 2020, in the context of an elimination COVID-19 strategy, with scenarios considering resurgence risk if restrictions were eased on 14 Sep (red) or 28 Sep (blue). Model simulations were started with random infected seed cases and randomly sampled transmission parameters, and were retained if they were within sufficient bounds of the observed data. Throughout the simulations ‘Stage 3’, masks and ‘Stage 4’ restrictions were imposed, with their impact derived through model calibration (see [8])