Table 1.
Model parameters of the ABM.
Parameter | Definition | Value | Std | Source |
---|---|---|---|---|
Transmission probability: For any edge between a susceptible and infectious individual in the contact network, is the probability that the susceptible person will enter into the exposed state. This only dictates internal transmission | 0.034 | 0.007 | Calibration | |
Scaling factor of the normalized confirmed cases in the surrounding county (S1). This is the parameter for us to generate | 0.032 | 0.0032 | Calibration | |
Proportion of population that is asymptomatic at day | 0.012 | 0.0009 | Calibration | |
Probability of exposed persons becoming symptomatic | 0.66 | - | (56) | |
Incubation period (days) since the first day of exposure | 5 | - | (56) | |
Asymptomatic duration (days); it is the time taken for an asymptomatic person to recover since the first day of exposure | 7 | - | (56) | |
, | Time of an symptomatic entering isolated since the first day of exposure of a symptomatic person | 8 | 2 | (57) |
, | Time for recovery for a symptomatic, since the first day of exposure | 12 | 2 | (58) |
Death rate under isolation | 0.0006 | - | (58) |
The variables , , and are estimated by calibrating the simulation model on the first weeks of positivity rates provided by GT surveillance for Fall 2020, while incorporating external cases from Fulton County. These parameters were found by validating the ABM on the remaining weeks of Fall 2020. Supplementary Material, Calibration provides additional details.