Table 2.
Summary of results.
| Subgroup | N | AUC (95% CI) for models fitted in all eligible patients a | Crossover day b (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chronic model | Acute model | |||
| Overall | 835,946 | 0.689 (0.687, 0.691) | 0.892 (0.891, 0.893) | 11 (10, 13) |
| By diagnostic group | ||||
| Gastrointestinal | 232,857 | 0.709 (0.705, 0.713) | 0.880 (0.877, 0.883) | 17 (10, 26) |
| Respiratory | 171,675 | 0.712 (0.709, 0.716) | 0.843 (0.840, 0.846) | 8 (7, 9) |
| Cardiovascular | 127,103 | 0.639 (0.635, 0.644) | 0.893 (0.890, 0.895) | 10 (8, 11) |
| Neurological | 91,809 | 0.636 (0.630, 0.642) | 0.873 (0.869, 0.877) | 6 (5, 7) |
| Genitourinary | 86,671 | 0.741 (0.735, 0.747) | 0.893 (0.889, 0.897) | 11 (9, 21) |
| Other | 125,801 | 0.749 (0.743, 0.755) | 0.913 (0.910, 0.916) | 10 (8, 14) |
| By year | ||||
| 2009–2010 | 86,195 | 0.685 (0.679, 0.691) | 0.870 (0.866, 0.873) | 10 (7, 14) |
| 2010–2011 | 100,404 | 0.684 (0.679, 0.690) | 0.872 (0.868, 0.875) | 8 (7, 12) |
| 2011–2012 | 115,754 | 0.691 (0.686, 0.696) | 0.877 (0.874, 0.881) | 8 (7, 10) |
| 2012–2013 | 118,914 | 0.692 (0.687, 0.697) | 0.878 (0.875, 0.881) | 8 (7, 9) |
| 2013–2014 | 126,345 | 0.687 (0.682, 0.692) | 0.882 (0.879, 0.885) | 10 (8, 13) |
| 2014–2015 | 139,554 | 0.691 (0.687, 0.696) | 0.887 (0.884, 0.890) | 10 (8, 13) |
| 2015–2016 | 148,780 | 0.683 (0.678, 0.688) | 0.886 (0.883, 0.889) | 10 (8, 16) |
AUC: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI: confidence interval; N: total sample size (development and validation samples combined).
aAUC for models fitted in the development sample and evaluated in the validation sample.
bDay on which the AUC for the chronic model first exceeded that for the acute model (95% CI calculated using nonparametric bootstrap).