. 2019 Sep 27;22(4):145–152. doi: 10.1136/ebmental-2019-300109

Table 1.

Model input parameters

Parameters	Values			References
Parameters	Base case	Minimum	Maximum	References
Probabilities
ETB sensitivity	0.957	0.870	1.000	P1vital
ETB specificity	0.400	0.610	0.190	P1vital
Response to first-line standard dose AD, moderate depression	0.530	0.600		GP survey^{7 14}
Response to first-line standard dose AD, severe depression	0.670	0.600		GP survey^{7 14}
Response to first-line standard dose AD, mild depression	0.350	0.360		GP survey; 60% of mild/moderate response rate¹⁶
Response to first-line increased dose AD, moderate depression	0.460	0.500		GP survey⁷
Response to first-line increased dose AD, severe depression	0.610	0.500		GP survey⁷
Response to first-line increased dose AD, mild depression	0.320	0.300		GP survey; 60% of mild/moderate response rate¹⁶
Response to second-line standard dose AD, moderate depression	0.510	0.410		GP survey¹⁵
Response to second-line standard dose AD, severe depression	0.630	0.410		GP survey¹⁵
Response to second-line standard dose AD, mild depression	0.380	0.246		GP survey; 60% of mild/moderate response rate¹⁶
Response to second-line increased dose AD, moderate depression	0.460	0.342		Identical base value to first-line AD (expert opinion)
Response to second-line increased dose AD, severe depression	0.610	0.342		Identical base value to first-line AD (expert opinion)
Response to second-line increased dose AD, mild depression	0.320	0.205		GP survey; 60% of mild/moderate response rate¹⁶
Response to secondary care AD therapy	0.400			Expert opinion
Full remission after response	0.410			7
Relapse, full remission no therapy (weekly)	0.017			18
Relapse, partial remission no therapy (weekly)	0.023			19
Relapse, full remission AD therapy (weekly)	0.007			18
Relapse, partial remission AD therapy (weekly)	0.009			19
Discontinuation, full remission (weekly)	0.044			17
Discontinuation, partial remission (weekly)	0.044			Same as for full remission (expert opinion)
Costs (£, 2011/2012)
First-line AD, standard dose (per week)	0.51			British National Formulary (BNF)
First- line AD, increased dose (per week)	0.76			BNF
Second-line AD, standard dose (per week)	0.51			BNF
Second-line AD, increased dose (per week)	0.76			BNF
Secondary care AD (per week)	0.71		0.94	BNF
Initial GP visit	44.00			25
Follow-up GP visit	30.00			25
Practice nurse, initial ETB test	7.17	0.00	7.17	25
Practice nurse, follow-up ETB test	0.00	0.00	7.17	25
Initial secondary care visit	264.75		353.00	25
Follow-up secondary care visit	45.75		91.50	25
Relapse treated in primary care (per week)	8.01		8.26	25
Relapse treated in secondary care (per week)	12.15		23.81	25
Utilities
Full remission, antidepressant therapy	0.810	0.680	0.940	16
Full remission, no therapy	0.850	0.720	0.980	23
Partial remission, antidepressant therapy	0.720	0.520	0.920	23
Partial remission, no therapy	0.760	0.560	0.960	Same improvement as in the case of full remission²³
Mild depression	0.600	0.540	0.650	24
Moderate depression	0.460	0.300	0.480	24
Severe depression	0.270	0.210	0.340	24
Relapse	0.600	0.540	0.650	Same QoL impact as initial episode (expert opinion)
No of work days lost (per week)
Moderate depression	0.5		1.5	GP survey
Mild depression	0.2		0.6	GP survey
Severe depression	1.7		4.8	GP survey
Full remission, antidepressant therapy	0			Expert opinion
Full remission, no therapy	0			Expert opinion
Partial remission, antidepressant therapy	0			Expert opinion
Partial remission, no therapy	0			Expert opinion
Value of a work day saved (£)	119	48.64		27 28
Willingness to pay threshold (£/QALY)	30 000	20 000	30 000	20 22

AD, antidepressant; ETB, P1vital Oxford Emotional Test Battery; GP, general practitioner; QALY, quality-adjusted life year; QoL, quality of life.