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. 2023 May 26;72(21):568–573. doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm7221a1

FIGURE 1.

The figure is a line chart showing risk for recurrent mpox outbreak lasting >3 months, by immunity level in the United States during 2023.

Risk* for recurrent mpox outbreak lasting >3 months, by immunity level† — United States, 2023

Abbreviations: mpox = monkeypox; MSM = gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men.

* Data points reflect simulated risk for a specific immunity level; line reflects predictions from linear model using immunity level as the independent variable and risk for recurrence as the dependent variable; error bars indicate 95% CIs assuming a binomial distribution based on the number of simulations required to produce 50 outbreaks.

† Immunity was varied from 0% to 99% in increments of approximately 4%; at each level of immunity, 29%, 67%, and 4% of MSM with some immunity are assumed to have 1-dose, 2-dose, or infection-acquired immunity, conveying 37%, 67%, and 100% protection, respectively.