TABLE. Jurisdiction-specific estimates of immunity and inferred* risk and size of mpox recurrence — United States, 2023.
| Jurisdiction | Estimated immunity level, %† | Inferred* risk for recurrence, % | Inferred* cumulative Monkeypox virus infections vs. 2022§ | Jurisdictional immunity grouping¶ | MSM at increased risk for Monkeypox virus exposure** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duval County, Florida |
6 |
57 |
4.08 |
Low |
12,425 |
| Shelby County, Tennessee |
10 |
55 |
3.77 |
Low |
10,626 |
| Hamilton County, Ohio |
10 |
55 |
3.79 |
Low |
9,970 |
| Bexar County, Texas |
11 |
54 |
3.67 |
Low |
17,916 |
| Dallas County, Texas |
12 |
53 |
3.62 |
Low |
45,264 |
| Tarrant County, Texas |
15 |
51 |
3.32 |
Low |
15,909 |
| Palm Beach County, Florida |
15 |
52 |
3.36 |
Low |
12,824 |
| Hillsborough County, Florida |
15 |
52 |
3.39 |
Low |
17,802 |
| Wayne County, Michigan |
16 |
51 |
3.29 |
Low |
14,705 |
| Harris County, Texas |
17 |
50 |
3.16 |
Low |
60,769 |
| San Bernardino County, California |
18 |
49 |
3.07 |
Low |
15,829 |
| East Baton Rouge Parish, Louisiana |
18 |
50 |
3.14 |
Low |
3,735 |
| Baltimore City, Maryland |
19 |
49 |
3.04 |
Low |
10,800 |
| Pinellas County, Florida |
20 |
48 |
2.96 |
Low |
13,430 |
| Gwinnett County, Georgia |
21 |
48 |
2.89 |
Low |
5,672 |
| Marion County, Indiana |
24 |
46 |
2.60 |
Low |
12,681 |
| Fulton County, Georgia |
25 |
45 |
2.58 |
Low |
27,831 |
| Prince George's County, Maryland |
26 |
44 |
2.03 |
Medium |
9,007 |
| Orange County, Florida |
26 |
45 |
2.09 |
Medium |
21,838 |
| Dekalb County, Georgia |
26 |
45 |
2.12 |
Medium |
14,053 |
| Cuyahoga County, Ohio |
27 |
44 |
1.90 |
Medium |
11,470 |
| Cobb County, Georgia |
27 |
44 |
1.96 |
Medium |
5,980 |
| Essex County, New Jersey |
29 |
43 |
1.66 |
Medium |
7,806 |
| Franklin County, Ohio |
31 |
42 |
1.41 |
Medium |
15,752 |
| Travis County, Texas |
32 |
41 |
1.30 |
Medium |
16,218 |
| San Juan Municipio, Puerto Rico |
32 |
41 |
1.30 |
Medium |
3,773 |
| Maricopa County, Arizona |
32 |
41 |
1.33 |
Medium |
33,513 |
| Mecklenburg County, North Carolina |
33 |
40 |
1.18 |
Medium |
12,947 |
| Montgomery County, Maryland |
34 |
40 |
1.10 |
Medium |
7,515 |
| Clark County, Nevada |
36 |
39 |
0.97 |
Medium |
20,231 |
| Bronx County, New York |
36 |
39 |
0.98 |
Medium |
19,723 |
| Hudson County, New Jersey |
37 |
38 |
0.86 |
Medium |
8,009 |
| Miami-Dade County, Florida |
40 |
36 |
0.72 |
Medium |
40,489 |
| Orange County, California |
45 |
33 |
0.48 |
Medium |
17,090 |
| Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania |
47 |
32 |
0.42 |
Medium |
18,771 |
| Sacramento County, California |
52 |
28 |
0.20 |
High |
9,723 |
| San Diego County, California |
54 |
27 |
0.19 |
High |
27,536 |
| Riverside County, California |
58 |
25 |
0.18 |
High |
21,314 |
| Broward County, Florida |
59 |
24 |
0.18 |
High |
33,886 |
| Orleans Parish, Louisiana |
61 |
23 |
0.18 |
High |
8,057 |
| Cook County, Illinois |
63 |
22 |
0.17 |
High |
60,444 |
| Los Angeles County, California |
63 |
22 |
0.17 |
High |
117,361 |
| Suffolk County, Massachusetts |
64 |
21 |
0.17 |
High |
10,356 |
| King County, Washington |
65 |
20 |
0.16 |
High |
24,308 |
| Alameda County, California |
75 |
14 |
0.14 |
High |
14,167 |
| Queens County, New York |
78 |
12 |
0.13 |
High |
20,057 |
| District of Columbia |
98 |
<1 |
0.08 |
High |
22,348 |
| Kings County, New York |
99 |
<1 |
0.07 |
High |
30,540 |
| New York County, New York |
100 |
<1 |
0.07 |
High |
37,900 |
| San Francisco County, California | 100 | <1 | 0.07 | High | 23,577 |
Abbreviations: mpox = monkeypox; MSM = gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men.
* Risk and size of potential recurrence inferred from each jurisdiction's estimated immunity level based on primary simulated results.
† At each level of immunity, 29%, 67%, and 4% of MSM with some immunity are assumed to have 1-dose, 2-dose, or infection-acquired immunity, conveying 37%, 67%, and 100% protection, respectively.
§ Median cumulative infections from simulations, relative to the size of the CDC-modeled 2022 mpox outbreak in the absence of additional vaccination or behavioral adaptation.
¶ Grouping based on thresholds identified in primary analysis. Threshold values are as follows: high >50%, medium = 25%–50%, and low <25%.
** Estimated as the number of MSM aged ≥16 years who were recommended to receive HIV preexposure prophylaxis and the number of MSM aged ≥13 years living with HIV in each jurisdiction, using publicly available data. The estimated population was then increased by 25% for each jurisdiction to account for additional persons eligible for vaccination (e.g., MSM with lower levels of sexual activity than their already-eligible partners).