Table 4.
Limitation | Effect on relative risk of NPD | Effect on incidence of NPD after COVID-19 | Comments and implications |
---|---|---|---|
Undocumented COVID-19 infection (in comparator cohort) | Decreased | Unaffected | Some subjects in comparator cohorts will have had COVID-19 |
People with asymptomatic COVID-19 under-represented | Unaltered if comparator cohort has a similar limitation (e.g. other respiratory infection). Increased if comparator cohort does not have a similar limitation (e.g. general population or all people testing negative for COVID-19) and if NPDs are less common after asymptomatic COVID-19 |
Increased, if NPDs are less common after asymptomatic COVID-19 | Using multiple comparator cohorts can help better characterize relative risk. Prospective studies specifically targeting asymptomatic COVID-19 cases can help determine the incidence of NPDs in that subgroup. |
NPD might have started before the index event but not diagnosed till afterwards | Unlikely | Increased | Could lead to misattribution of causality to COVID-19 or other index event |
NPD present but not yet diagnosed (e.g. because of diagnostic delay or because affected individual does not seek medical attention) | Unlikely | Decreased | The effect on incidence will tend to counter the over-estimation arising from the limitation above. Active follow-up in prospective studies is required to detect these cases |
Incomplete past health records | Unlikely | First-onset diagnostic rates increased if previous episodes had occurred but were not recorded | Less of a problem in countries where people have a single health record |
Lack of information on viral strain | Could be increased, decreased or unchanged | Could be increased, decreased or unchanged | Effects depend on whether the strain affects risk of NPD and, if so, the timing and design of the study |
SARS-CoV-2 could affect patient or physician behaviour and thence diagnostic behaviour | Could be increased, decreased or unchanged | Could be increased, decreased or unchanged | Direction of effect depends on what (if anything) COVID-19 does to health-seeking or physician behaviour. Difficult limitation to overcome. |
People making no further contact with health services considered lost to follow-up | Could be increased, decreased, or unchanged | Decreased when using Kaplan–Meier estimator, unchanged when using total counts | Prospective studies with active follow-up and low attrition can address this limitation |
Unknown NPD severity, course, and outcome | None | None | Difficult to assess using conventional EHR data. Although risk and incidence unaffected, these factors have implications for treatment and services |
NPD = neuropsychiatric disorder.