Table 1.
Input parameters and data sources used in the Markov model for ulcerative colitis.
| Parameters | Value | Data Source |
|---|---|---|
| Patients’ characteristics | ||
| Age, years | 40 | Tappenden 201620 |
| Females, % | 43 | Tappenden 201620 |
| Weight, kg | 77 | Tappenden 201620 |
| Transition probabilities (per cycle) | ||
| Treatment efficacy | ||
| First-line treatment | ||
| Induction phase | ||
| Remission | ||
| Infliximab | 0.3343 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Adalimumab | 0.1823 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Vedolizumab | 0.2654 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Response | ||
| Infliximab | 0.3477 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Adalimumab | 0.3160 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Vedolizumab | 0.3431 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Maintenance phase | ||
| Remission | ||
| Infliximab | 0.3720 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Adalimumab | 0.3201 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Vedolizumab | 0.4961 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Response | ||
| Infliximab | 0.1341 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Adalimumab | 0.1309 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Vedolizumab | 0.1343 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Subsequent lines | ||
| Induction phase | ||
| Remission | ||
| Infliximab | 0.0719 | Assumption: to be same as least efficacious drug |
| Adalimumab | 0.0719 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Vedolizumab | 0.0790 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Response | ||
| Infliximab | 0.2556 | Assumption: to be same as least efficacious drug |
| Adalimumab | 0.2556 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Vedolizumab | 0.2664 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Maintenance phase | ||
| Remission | ||
| Infliximab | 0.2951 | Assumption: to be same as least efficacious drug |
| Adalimumab | 0.2951 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Vedolizumab | 0.4804 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Response | ||
| Infliximab | 0.1279 | Assumption: to be same as least efficacious drug |
| Adalimumab | 0.1279 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Vedolizumab | 0.1361 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Discontinuation of treatment from real-world evidence | ||
| First-line treatment | ||
| Infliximab | 0.0396 | Calculation based on Chen 201927 |
| Adalimumab | 0.0658 | Calculation based on Chen 201927 |
| Vedolizumab | 0.0387 | Calculation based on Helwig 202128 |
| Subsequent lines | ||
| Infliximab | 0.0490 | Calculation based on Helwig 202029 |
| Adalimumab | 0.0446 | Calculation based on Helwig 202029 |
| Vedolizumab | 0.0401 | Calculation based on Helwig 202029 |
| Outcomes after surgery | ||
| Remission | 0.6833 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Complications | 0.3167 | Lohan 201926 |
| Probability of complications recurrence | 0.0150 | Calculation based on Peyrin-Biroulet 201630 |
| Safety | ||
| Serious infection probabilities (per cycle) | ||
| Infliximab | 0.0037 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Adalimumab | 0.0093 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Vedolizumab | 0.0019 | Calculation based on Lohan 201926 |
| Mortality | ||
| Standardized mortality ratio—UK | 1.0000 | King 2020,31 Selinger 201232 |
| Standardized mortality ratio—France | 1.1000 | Jess 200733 |
| Perioperative mortality | 0.0284 | Lohan 201926 |
| Utility | ||
| Active disease | 0.41 | Tappenden 201620 |
| Remission | 0.87 | Tappenden 201620 |
| Response | 0.76 | Tappenden 201620 |
| Surgery | 0.41 | Tappenden 201620 |
| Remission after surgery | 0.71 | Tappenden 201620 |
| Complications after surgery | 0.54 | Tappenden 201620 |
| Disutility | ||
| Serious infections | 0.07 | Worbes-Cerezo 201934 |