Table 1.
Six model scenarios with varying COVID-19 incidence rates, vaccine effectiveness against cases and hospitalizations, and myocarditis/pericarditis rates.
| COVID-19 Incidence | Vaccine Effectiveness | Excess Myocarditis Risk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario 1 | As of December 2021 | Omicron dominant: 30% against cases 72% against hospitalization 72% against death |
Mean of BEST meta-analysis |
| Scenario 2 | Average COVID-19 pandemic incidence in 2021 | Same as Scenario 1 | Same as Scenario 1 |
| Scenario 3 | Lowest COVID-19 pandemic incidence (June 5, 2021) | Same as Scenario 1 | Same as Scenario 1 |
| Scenario 4 | Same as Scenario 1 | Delta dominant: 80% against cases 90% against hospitalization 90% against death |
Same as Scenario 1 |
| Scenario 5 | Same as Scenario 1 | Same as Scenario 1 | 2.5th percentile of BEST meta-analysis |
| Scenario 6 | Same as Scenario 1 | Same as Scenario 1 | 97.5th percentile of BEST meta-analysis |