Table 3.
Model input health state transitions
| Parameter | Data | Source | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Post-surgery CRC recurrent rate |
Gilard-Pioc (2015) (19) | |||
| CRC stage I | 5.8% | |||
| CRC stage II | 5.8% | |||
| CRC stage III | 18.8% | |||
| CRC stage IV | 18.8% | |||
| CRC mortality rates | Age |
|||
| <65 | 65–75 | 75+ | Gilard-Pioc (2015) (19) | |
| CRC stage I (no recurrence) | 3.0% | 5.0% | 10.5% | |
| CRC stage II (no recurrence) | 3.0% | 5.0% | 10.5% | |
| CRC stage III (no recurrence) | 5.0% | 8.5% | 16.5% | |
| CRC stage IV (no recurrence) | 5.0% | 8.5% | 16.5% | |
| CRC stage I (post recurrence) | 56.0% | 56.0% | 87.0% | |
| CRC stage II (post recurrence) | 56.0% | 56.0% | 87.0% | |
| CRC stage III (post recurrence) | 68.0% | 67.0% | 93.5% | |
| CRC stage IV (post recurrence) | 68.0% | 67.0% | 93.5% | |
| Health states transition probabilities | Mean | 95% CI | Coretti (2020) (20) | |
| Healthy to small adenoma (5 mm) | ||||
| Age 50 | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.7% | |
| Age 55 | 1.0% | 0.5% | 2.0% | |
| Age 60 | 1.2% | 0.6% | 2.3% | |
| Age 65 | 1.3% | 0.7% | 2.7% | |
| Age 70 | 1.5% | 0.8% | 3.0% | |
| Small to medium (6–9 mm) | 3.5% | 1.7% | 6.9% | |
| Medium to large (10 mm) | 2.2% | 1.1% | 4.3% | |
| Large to CRC stage I | 37.0% | 26.8% | 47.2% | |
| CRC stage I to stage II | 23.8% | 20.6% | 27.1% | |
| CRC stage II to stage III | 48.5% | 32.1% | 65.0% | |
| CRC stage III to stage IV | 30.2% | 15.1% | 60.4% | |
CRC, colorectal cancer; CI, confidence interval.