Table 3.

Predictive accuracy of noninvasive models for decompensation and hospital stay in patients with non-viral cirrhosis

Non-viral cirrhosis (n = 1973)	AUC for the risk of ascites (95% CI)		AUC for the risk of hepatic encephalopathy (95% CI)		AUC for the risk of any decompensation (95% CI)		Hazard ratio of decompensation (95% CI, P)	Concordance index (P)g	Hospital days IRR (95% CI, P)h
	1-yeara	3-yearb	1-yearc	3-yeard	1-yeare	3-yearf
ALBI	0.657 (0.652–0.661)	0.627 (0.623–0.632)	0.785 (0.781–0.789)	0.703 (0.697–0.709)	0.708 (0.704–0.712)	0.667 (0.661–0.673)	1.88 (1.61–2.16, < 0.01)	0.658 (< 0.01)	1.21 (0.99–1.5, 0.07)
ALBI-FIB-4	0.68 (0.674–0.686)	0.662 (0.657–0.668)	0.806 (0.802–0.811)	0.741 (0.736–0.746)	0.734 (0.73–0.738)	0.706 (0.701–0.711)	1.22 (1.13–1.32, < 0.01)	0.682 (< 0.01)	1.04 (0.93–1.16, 0.51)
APRI	0.628 (0.622–0.634)	0.624 (0.62–0.629)	0.706 (0.701–0.711)	0.672 (0.667–0.677)	0.672 (0.668–0.676)	0.658 (0.652–0.663)	1.12 (1.07–1.16, < 0.01)	0.62 (< 0.01)	0.98 (0.93–1.04, 0.58)
CTP	0.613 (0.608–0.618)	0.586 (0.581–0.59)	0.739 (0.735–0.743)	0.647 (0.642–0.652)	0.661 (0.657–0.665)	0.62 (0.616–0.623)	1.29 (1.19–1.4, < 0.01)	0.612 (< 0.01)	1.35 (1.17–1.54, < 0.01)
FIB-4	0.673 (0.668–0.677)	0.687 (0.682–0.692)	0.763 (0.759–0.767)	0.754 (0.75–0.759)	0.717 (0.714–0.719)	0.73 (0.725–0.736)	1.03 (1.02–1.05, < 0.01)	0.692 (< 0.01)	0.98 (0.96–1.01, 0.23)
Lok index	0.652(0.647–0.656)	0.658 (0.653–0.663)	0.79 (0.785–0.794)	0.741 (0.735–0.746)	0.721 (0.718–0.725)	0.716 (0.711–0.721)	7.81 (5.25–11.6, < 0.01)	0.668 (< 0.01)	1.46 (1.0–2.14, 0.05)
MELD	0.634 (0.628–0.64)	0.642 (0.637–0.648)	0.748 (0.743–0.753)	0.68 (0.674–0.685)	0.69 (0.688–0.693)	0.664 (0.66–0.67)	1.05 (1.03–1.07, < 0.01)	0.629 (< 0.01)	1.09 (1.06–1.12, < 0.01)

AUC area under the curve, CI confidence interval, IRR incidence risk ratio

^aAUC of ALBI-FIB-4 is significantly larger than AUCs of ALBI, APRI, CTP, Lok index, and MELD. There is no significant difference between ALBI-FIB-4 and FIB-4

^bAUC of FIB-4 is significantly larger than AUCs of other noninvasive models

^cAUC of ALBI-FIB-4 is significantly larger than AUCs of other noninvasive models

^dAUC of FIB-4 is significantly larger than AUCs of ALBI, APRI, CTP, FIB-4, Lok index, and MELD. There is no significant difference between ALBI-FIB-4 and FIB-4

^eAUC of ALBI-FIB-4 is significantly larger than AUCs of other noninvasive models

^fAUC of FIB-4 is significantly larger than AUCs of other noninvasive models

^gConcordance index of FIB-4 is significantly larger than concordance indexes of other noninvasive models

^hAkaike information criterion (AIC) of MELD (11,472) is smaller than the AIC of CTP (11,490); the MELD has the best predictive ability of hospitalization