Table 4.

Predictive accuracy of noninvasive models for decompensation and hospital stay in patients with viral cirrhosis

Viral cirrhosis (n = 1730)	AUC for the risk of ascites (95% CI)		AUC for the risk of hepatic encephalopathy (95% CI)		AUC for the risk of any decompensation (95% CI)		Hazard ratio of decompensation (95% CI, P)	Concordance index (P)g	Hospital days IRR (95% CI, P)h
	1-yeara	3-yearb	1-yearc	3-yeard	1-yeare	3-yearf
ALBI	0.686 (0.682–0.69)	0.717 (0.713–0.721)	0.776 (0.771–0.78)	0.787 (0.782–0.792)	0.728 (0.725–0.731)	0.739 (0.734–0.744)	2.35 (1.98–2.78, < 0.01)	0.672 (< 0.01)	1.46 (1.15–1.85, < 0.01)
ALBI-FIB-4	0.694 (0.689–0.699)	0.724 (0.719–0.728)	0.78 (0.775–0.784)	0.792 (0.788–0.796)	0.741 (0.737–0.745)	0.754 (0.751–0.757)	1.29 (1.16–1.44, < 0.01)	0.681 (< 0.01)	1.09 (0.98–1.22, 0.11)
APRI	0.617 (0.612–0.621)	0.624 (0.618–0.63)	0.669 (0.665–0.673)	0.658 (0.652–0.663)	0.646 (0.642–0.651)	0.649 (0.644–0.653)	1.04 (1.01–1.07, 0.011)	0.614 (< 0.01)	0.99 (0.95–1.03, 0.539)
CTP	0.658 (0.653–0.663)	0.666 (0.661–0.671)	0.732 (0.728–0.736)	0.733 (0.728–0.737)	0.687 (0.683–0.691)	0.686 (0.682–0.69)	1.49 (1.36–1.64, < 0.01)	0.628 (< 0.01)	1.55 (1.3–1.85, < 0.01)
FIB-4	0.675 (0.67–0.68)	0.692 (0.688–0.696)	0.731 (0.725–0.738)	0.735 (0.73–0.741)	0.704 (0.701–0.709)	0.719 (0.715–0.724)	1.04 (1.02–1.07, < 0.01)	0.66 (< 0.01)	0.99 (0.97–1.02, 0.636)
Lok index	0.684 (0.679–0.689)	0.709 (0.704–0.713)	0.741 (0.737–0.744)	0.759 (0.754–0.764)	0.71 (0.706–0.714)	0.722 (0.718–0.726)	9.4 (5.84–14.97, < 0.01)	0.663 (< 0.01)	1.17 (0.73–1.88, 0.511)
MELD	0.632 (0.626–0.638)	0.632 (0.627–0.638)	0.698 (0.693–0.702)	0.683 (0.678–0.688)	0.656 (0.653–0.66)	0.638 (0.634–0.642)	1.08 (1.05–1.11, < 0.01)	0.611 (< 0.01)	1.13 (1.08–1.17, < 0.01)

AUC area under the curve, CI confidence interval, IRR incidence risk ratio

^aAUC of ALBI-FIB-4 is significantly larger than AUCs of APRI, CTP, FIB-4, and MELD. There is no significant difference between ALBI, ALBI-FIB-4, and Lok index

^bAUC of ALBI-FIB-4 is significantly larger than AUCs of APRI, CTP, FIB-4, Lok index, and MELD. There is no significant difference between ALBI and ALBI-FIB-4

^cAUC of ALBI-FIB-4 is significantly larger than AUCs of APRI, CTP, FIB-4, Lok index, and MELD. There is no significant difference between ALBI and ALBI-FIB-4

^dAUC of ALBI-FIB-4 is significantly larger than AUCs of APRI, CTP, FIB-4, Lok index, and MELD. There is no significant difference between ALBI and ALBI-FIB-4

^eAUC of ALBI-FIB-4 is significantly larger than AUCs of other noninvasive models

^fAUC of ALBI-FIB-4 is significantly larger than AUCs of other noninvasive models

^gConcordance index of ALBI-FIB-4 is significantly larger than AUCs of other noninvasive models

^hAkaike information criterion (AIC) of MELD (8109) is smaller than the AICs of ALBI (8141) and CTP (8121); the MELD has the best predictive ability of hospitalization