Fig. 2. Counterfactual scenarios - Deaths averted if countries had US-equivalent vaccination rate.

a Countries modeled, their WHO region, and the percentage of fully vaccinated individuals there as of October 1, 2021. World borders layer is taken from Ref. ⁷⁰. b Deaths averted expressed as a percentage with respect to the actual vaccination rollout (median and interquartile range computed over 1000 independent model realizations), assuming per capita vaccination rates equivalent to the United States. Averted deaths are computed over the simulation period (2020/10/01−2021/10/01). The median absolute number of deaths averted is reported above the inter-quartile range.