Fig. 3. Counterfactual scenarios - Deaths averted if countries had US-equivalent vaccination start date.

Deaths averted expressed as a percentage with respect to the actual vaccination rollout (median and interquartile range computed over 1000 independent model realizations), assuming United States start date of December 14, 2020. Averted deaths are computed over the simulation period (2020/10/01−2021/10/01). The median absolute number of deaths averted is reported above the inter-quartile range.