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. 2023 Jun 6;14:3272. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-39098-w

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© The Author(s) 2023

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 4 — a Additional decrease of transmission obtained through stricter NPIs, put in place for four months, needed to match the deaths averted that the vaccination rate of the US would have allowed (median and interquartile range computed over 1000 independent model realizations). b For three countries we show the contour plots of the percentage of deaths averted (median %) with stricter and/or longer NPIs, relative to the actual vaccination baseline. Percentage of deaths averted achieved by a US-equivalent vaccination rate is plotted as reference (red dashed line). The white circle indicates the level corresponding to stricter NPIs sustained for additional 16 weeks.