Table 3.
Probit, Poisson, and IV-LPM Models of Pressure on the Central Bank.
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Degree of populism | 0.785** | 0.863*** | 0.873*** | 0.738** | 0.724** | 1.037** | 0.065 | 0.638*** |
| (0.304) | (0.262) | (0.263) | (0.245) | (0.250) | (0.321) | (0.034) | (0.140) | |
| Economic left-right scale | −0.259*** | −0.263*** | −0.276* | −0.015 | −0.019 | |||
| (0.071) | (0.071) | (0.110) | (0.010) | (0.104) | ||||
| Populism × economic left-right scale | 0.490** | 0.470** | 0.526 | 0.025 | 0.015 | |||
| (0.172) | (0.173) | (0.291) | (0.019) | (0.276) | ||||
| Lagged capital outflows to GDP | −0.001* | −0.001** | −0.000 | −0.002* | ||||
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.001) | |||||
| Democracy | −0.064 | −0.060 | −0.059 | −0.062 | −0.079 | 0.002 | −0.027 | |
| (0.043) | (0.047) | (0.044) | (0.045) | (0.086) | (0.005) | (0.078) | ||
| Less than 12 months to election | −0.231 | −0.229 | −0.234 | −0.212 | −0.330 | −0.019 | −0.239 | |
| (0.174) | (0.172) | (0.166) | (0.168) | (0.299) | (0.013) | (0.198) | ||
| IMF CB conditions | −0.471 | −0.495 | −0.527 | −0.541 | −0.695 | −0.028 | −0.341 | |
| (0.421) | (0.424) | (0.450) | (0.452) | (0.699) | (0.025) | (0.245) | ||
| Debt-to-GDP ratio | −0.004 | −0.006 | −0.004 | −0.014 | 0.001 | −0.049 | ||
| (0.011) | (0.011) | (0.010) | (0.022) | (0.001) | (0.031) | |||
| Lagged inflation | 0.013 | 0.014 | 0.005 | −0.047 | −0.011 | 0.096 | ||
| (0.066) | (0.066) | (0.066) | (0.080) | (0.007) | (0.088) | |||
| Lagged Δ exchange rate | 1.391 | 1.185 | 0.246 | 0.365 | −0.333 | 5.729 | ||
| (4.400) | (4.519) | (4.690) | (7.772) | (0.493) | (5.516) | |||
| Lagged Δ GDP | 2.837 | 2.753 | 3.551 | 4.753 | 0.355 | 5.509 | ||
| (3.574) | (3.623) | (3.328) | (6.440) | (0.288) | (7.764) | |||
| t | −0.178*** | −0.181*** | −0.181*** | −0.180*** | −0.181*** | −0.344*** | −0.020*** | −0.170** |
| (0.021) | (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.022) | (0.022) | (0.058) | (0.004) | (0.054) | |
| t 2 | 0.004*** | 0.005*** | 0.004*** | 0.004*** | 0.004*** | 0.009*** | 0.000*** | 0.004 |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | (0.000) | (0.003) | |
| t 3 | −0.000*** | −0.000*** | −0.000*** | −0.000*** | −0.000*** | −0.000** | −0.000*** | −0.000 |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
| Prob > F | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pseudo-R2 | 0.315 | 0.328 | 0.330 | 0.338 | 0.345 | 0.339 | 0.356 | |
| Chi-square | 181 | 270 | 380 | 509 | 549 | 713 | 19837 | |
| Log-likelihood | −217 | −213 | −212 | −210 | −207 | −265 | −89 | |
| N | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 415 |
| Number of clusters | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 17 |
Huber-White standard errors clustered by country. First stage of the instrumental variable model is shown in the online appendix.
*p < 0.05,**p < 0.01,***p < 0.001.