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. 2023 Jun 10;8:90. doi: 10.1038/s41541-023-00668-0

Table 3.

Baseline cases at the regional and global levels.

UN regions Scenarios Cases (thousands)
Pharyngitis Impetigo Invasive disease Cellulitis Rheumatic heart disease
South Asia 1,2,5,6 997,239 1,992,706 139,217 211,562 612 728 7642 14,792 2893 10,741
3,4 1,014,494 2,027,050 141,670 215,255 623 741 7777 15,050 2939 10,907
Europe & Central Asia 1,2,5,6 316,919 633,687 44,127 67,156 193 230 3747 7211 249 654
3,4 322,505 644,834 44,909 68,342 196 234 3805 7324 249 654
Middle East & North Africa 1,2,5,6 314,558 628,787 43,838 66,679 192 229 2345 4266 928 2454
3,4 312,173 623,985 43,514 66,179 190 227 2330 4238 916 2422
Sub-Saharan Africa 1,2,5,6 1,517,327 3,025,939 212,901 322,443 942 1118 12,223 22,891 10,967 32,735
3,4 1,449,400 2,889,696 203,532 308,103 901 1070 11,673 21,846 10,478 31,289
Latin America & Caribbean 1,2,5,6 286,031 571,793 39,855 60,626 174 208 7949 11,387 1163 3235
3,4 297,851 595,385 41,511 63,136 182 216 8308 11,895 1204 3350
East Asia & Pacific 1,2,5,6 831,037 1,661,287 115,783 176,134 506 603 6386 10,512 1970 4811
3,4 862,246 1,723,558 120,157 182,764 525 626 6626 10,902 2038 4980
North America 1,2,5,6 150,714 301,372 20,984 31,937 92 109 7568 16,919 9 16
3,4 150,087 300,114 20,898 31,805 91 109 7538 16,851 9 16
Global 1,2,5,6 4,413,825 8,815,571 616,705 936,537 2709 3224 47,860 87,977 18,179 54,646
3,4 4,408,757 8,804,622 616,192 935,583 2709 3223 48,057 88,105 17,833 53,619

The baseline cases (pre-vaccination) of Strep A disease burden (pharyngitis, impetigo, invasive disease, cellulitis, and rheumatic heart disease) is presented at the regional (United Nations regions) and global levels, based on 30 birth cohorts from year of vaccine introduction and for duration associated with the vaccination scenarios. Case numbers are split between those scenarios that have country-specific years of introduction (1,2,5,6) and those introduced in 2022 (3,4). The left column of case numbers relate to the 10-year durability assumption and the right column to 20-year durability of vaccine protection.