Table 4.
Predictors of transit riders’ use of online grocery delivery services.
| Wave 1 (May 2020) |
Wave 2 (March 2021) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zero-inflation model (ORs) | Count model (IRRs) | Zero-inflation model (ORs) | Count model (IRRs) | |
| Intercept | 3.65 (2.27, 5.88)*** | 1.83 (1.39, 2.40)*** | 1.13 (0.60, 2.16) | 1.61 (1.13, 2.29)** |
| City is Vancouver (ref: Toronto) | 1.33 (1.01, 1.74)* | 0.92 (0.79, 1.07) | 1.61 (1.11, 2.32)* | 0.79 (0.64, 0.96)* |
| Gender (ref: male) | ||||
| Female | 0.78 (0.60, 1.00)* | 0.98 (0.85, 1.13) | 0.67 (0.48, 0.93)* | 0.90 (0.74, 1.09) |
| Non-binary | 0.60 (0.39, 0.91)* | 0.86 (0.68, 1.09) | 0.86 (0.47, 1.58) | 0.90 (0.63, 1.28) |
| Age (ref: 18–29) | ||||
| 30–39 | 0.76 (0.57, 1.01)^ | 1.04 (0.89, 1.22) | 0.67 (0.45, 0.98)* | 1.07 (0.87, 1.32) |
| 40–49 | 0.75 (0.53, 1.06) | 1.08 (0.90, 1.30) | 0.67 (0.42, 1.05)^ | 1.27 (0.99, 1.62)^ |
| 50–64 | 1.42 (1.00, 2.02)^ | 1.39 (1.13, 1.71)** | 1.12 (0.71, 1.76) | 1.33 (1.02, 1.74)* |
| 65+ | 1.46 (0.89, 2.40) | 1.37 (1.02, 1.84)* | 1.36 (0.73, 2.53) | 1.42 (0.97, 2.07)^ |
| Race or Ethnicity (ref: white) | ||||
| Black | 2.31 (1.18, 4.49)* | 1.33 (0.96, 1.85)^ | 0.99 (0.39, 2.54) | 0.57 (0.35, 0.90)* |
| Indigenous | 1.29 (0.73, 2.27) | 1.26 (0.92, 1.73) | 0.86 (0.44, 1.70) | 1.23 (0.82, 1.84) |
| Other person of colour | 1.38 (1.07, 1.79)* | 1.26 (1.1, 1.45)*** | 1.06 (0.75, 1.49) | 1.07 (0.88, 1.29) |
| Immigrated within 5 years of 2020 | 0.87 (0.59, 1.27) | 1.00 (0.83, 1.22) | 0.46 (0.26, 0.81)** | 0.93 (0.71, 1.21) |
| Dietary restrictions (1 = yes) | 0.52 (0.34, 0.82)** | 0.80 (0.64, 1.00)* | 0.57 (0.33, 0.99)* | 0.97 (0.72, 1.31) |
| Has a disability (1 = yes) | 0.74 (0.41, 1.33) | 0.98 (0.75, 1.28) | 1.82 (0.84, 3.96) | 1.58 (1.07, 2.32)* |
| Agree “I am at severe risk of COVID-19” (wave 1) | 0.72 (0.57, 0.92)** | 1.09 (0.96, 1.23) | 1.07 (0.78, 1.48) | 1.23 (1.03, 1.47)* |
| Income | ||||
| Annual Income 2019 | 0.96 (0.93, 0.99)** | 1.02 (1.01, 1.04)** | ||
| Monthly Income March 2021 | 1.03 (0.98, 1.09) | 1.03 (1.00, 1.06)^ | ||
| Walk distance to nearest grocery (sqrt of metres) | 1.00 (0.98, 1.01) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.01) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.01) |
| Access to a bike | 1.11 (0.88, 1.4) | 0.99 (0.87, 1.12) | 1.39 (1.03, 1.89)* | 1.04 (0.88, 1.23) |
| Vehicle Access (ref: none) | ||||
| Has access, doesn't own | 1.07 (0.80, 1.45) | 1.02 (0.88, 1.20) | 0.72 (0.48, 1.08) | 0.89 (0.72, 1.11) |
| Owns a vehicle | 1.01 (0.75, 1.36) | 1.00 (0.85, 1.18) | 0.93 (0.64, 1.36) | 1.00 (0.81, 1.23) |
| Weekly transit boardings pre-pandemic | 1.02 (1.00, 1.03)* | 1.01 (1.00, 1.02)* | 1.04 (1.02, 1.06)*** | 1.02 (1, 1.03)** |
| Essential worker (wave 1) | 1.93 (1.43, 2.6)*** | 0.83 (0.69, 0.99)* | 1.68 (1.17, 2.40)** | 1.14 (0.92, 1.41) |
| Pre-pandemic frequency of grocery delivery (reference: never) | ||||
| 1–2 times a month | 0.01 (0.00, 0.15)** | 1.00 (0.85, 1.19) | 0.03 (0.00, 0.18)*** | 1.11 (0.88, 1.4) |
| 3 or more times a month | 0.03 (0.01, 0.08)*** | 2.01 (1.65, 2.44)*** | 0.06 (0.01, 0.27)*** | 1.27 (0.94, 1.72) |
| Less than once a month | 0.05 (0.03, 0.11)*** | 0.87 (0.74, 1.01)^ | 0.26 (0.15, 0.44)*** | 1.01 (0.81, 1.25) |
| Transit use for groceries (ref: did not use before or during pandemic) | ||||
| Kept riding transit during pandemic | 1.73 (1.08, 2.76)* | 1.06 (0.79, 1.40) | 0.83 (0.47, 1.46) | 0.83 (0.6, 1.15) |
| Stopped riding transit during pandemic | 0.56 (0.41, 0.75)*** | 1.16 (1.00, 1.36)^ | 0.62 (0.41, 0.94)* | 1.20 (0.97, 1.47)^ |
| Log(theta) | 2.28 (1.8, 2.87)*** | 2.20 (1.59, 3.04)*** | ||
| AIC | 7129.7 | 4331.5 | ||
***p < .0001, **p < .01, *p < .05, ^ p < .10.