TABLE 4.

Classification probabilities and SE for simulations

				Method A			Method C
				With misclassification			Without partial
True state	Class. state	Truth	N	Bias	SE	MSE	Bias	SE	MSE
(0,0,0)	(0,0,0)	0.925	2988	−0.002	0.019	3e-04	0.011	0.121	0.0147
(0,1,0)	(0,1,0)	0.506	1324	−0.005	0.05	0.0024	−0.018	0.275	0.0759
(0,2,0)	(0,2,0)	0.025	13	−0.002	0.012	1e-04	−0.16	0.161	0.0511
(1,0,0)	(1,0,0)	0.901	572	−0.006	0.043	0.0018	0.099	0.202	0.0505
(1,1,0)	(1,1,0)	0.737	243	−0.008	0.075	0.0052	0.003	0.375	0.1397
(1,2,0)	(1,2,0)	0.484	71	−0.049	0.224	0.0507	0.136	0.458	0.2296
(2,0,0)	(2,0,0)	0.873	444	−0.014	0.065	0.0043	0.13	0.321	0.1197
(2,1,0)	(2,1,0)	0.952	799	−0.003	0.05	0.0025	0.034	0.179	0.0333
(2,2,0)	(2,2,0)	0.392	42	−0.044	0.156	0.0236	−0.407	0.298	0.2548
(0,0,1)	(0,0,1)	0.039	10	0.007	0.04	0.0016	−0.003	0.088	0.0076
(0,1,1)	(0,1,1)	0.016	41	0.002	0.008	1e-04	−0.007	0.023	6e-04
(0,2,1)	(0,2,1)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
(1,0,1)	(1,0,1)	0.038	19	−0.012	0.058	0.0034	−0.018	0.131	0.0174
(1,1,1)	(1,1,1)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
(1,2,1)	(1,2,1)	0.301	142	−0.154	0.144	0.0438	−0.429	0.283	0.2631
(2,0,1)	(2,0,1)	0.144	122	0.005	0.047	0.0022	0.031	0.068	0.0055
(2,1,1)	(2,1,1)	0.43	280	−0.016	0.155	0.024	0.126	0.251	0.0786
(2,2,1)	(2,2,1)	0.365	34	0.041	0.121	0.0144	−0.029	0.212	0.0457

Note: State tuples correspond to (HPV, cytology, colposcopy). State (2,1,0) corresponds to HPV 2, cytology 1, and colposcopy 0. Method A is the proposed method with misclassification and C is an HMM where the partially observed data are discarded.

^*indicates that the 95% CI for the estimated bias does not include zero. N is the average number of individuals with each state from time 1 to n.

Abbreviations: HMM, hidden Markov model; HPV, human papillomavirus.