Table 2.
Burden and characteristics of non-symptomatic and infectious states for 15 pathogens.
| Disease | Incidence, 2019 (Confidence intervals) [with exceptions] |
Mortality, 2019 (Confidence intervals) [with exceptions] |
Proportion infected who are symptomatic | Proportion infected who are pre-symptomatic and infectious |
Proportion infected who are asymptomatic | Proportion infected who are chronically asymptomatic | Relative infectiousness of asymptomatic cases compared to symptomatic cases | Time spent pre-symptomatic and infectious (days) | Time spent asymptomatic and infectious (days) | Time spent chronically asymptomatic and infectious (days) | References |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 | 102,083,344 | 2,209,195 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5* | 0 | 0.75* | 5* | 7* | 0 | (He et al., 2020, Johansson et al., 2021, WHO, 2021) |
| HIV | 1,989,282(1,760,906 - 2,259,348) | 863,837 (786,074 - 996,044) |
0.99 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.01 | 0.24 | 90 | 2920 | 18250 | (Hollingsworth et al., 2008, Evaluation, 2019) |
| TB | 8,497,316(7,445,681 - 9,727,992) | 1,179,766 (1,078,546 - 1,292,664) |
0.47 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 0.5 | 548 | 548 | 0 | (Frascella et al., 2020, Evaluation, 2019, Emery et al., 2022) |
| Malaria | 231,357,372(186,034,444 - 290,217,184) | 643,381 (301,600 - 1,153,663) |
0.5 | 0.5 | 0.25 | 0 | 0.44 | 18 | 194 | 0 | (Lindblade et al., 2013, Evaluation, 2019, Filipe et al., 2007, Tadesse et al., 2018) |
| Polio | 1047** | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.97 | 0.02 | 1 | 14 | 43 | 475 | (Evaluation, 2019, Nathanson and Kew, 2010, Fine and Carneiro, 1999, Initiative, 2021) |
| Measles | 12,806,077 (4,548,907 - 27,689,595) |
83,392 (30,998 - 180,402) |
0.33 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 0.1 | 11 | 4 | 0 | (Heymann, 2015, Evaluation, 2019, Glass and Grenfell, 2004) |
| Smallpox | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | 0 | (Heymann, 2015) |
| Typhoid | 9,237,224 (5,942,766 - 14,132,773) |
133,366 (65,708 - 228,866) |
0.16 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 18 | 14 | 3650 | (Watson, 2018, Evaluation, 2019) |
| Ebola | 2,229*** | 3,481*** | 0.97 | 0 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | (Glynn et al., 2017, WHO & newsroom, 2021) |
| Dengue | 56,878,729 (37,083,098 - 101,350,556) |
36,055 (9,176 - 44,467) |
0.23 | 0.18 | 0.77 | 0 | 0.8 | 8 | 11 | 0 | (Bosch et al., 2018, Evaluation, 2019) |
| Monkeypox | 4,594 | 171 | 0.9 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 9 | 0 | (Guagliardo et al., 2020, response, 2020) |
| Schisto | 139,967,777 (166,093,920 - 117,172,099) |
11,514 (10,135 - 13,275) |
0.6 | 0 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 3650 | 0 | (Evaluation, 2019, Farooq et al., 1966) |
| Rubella | 47,556 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (Heymann, 2015, Edmunds et al., 2000, Distribution, 2021) |
| Influenza | 54,481,000**** (38,465,000 - 73,864,000) |
145,000**** (99,000 - 200,000) |
0.56 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 6 | 0 | (Cohen et al., 2021, Collaborators, 2017) |
| Norovirus | 685,000,000 | 50,000 | 0.75 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0.05 | 0 | 19 | 0 | (Lopman et al., 2014, Prevention, 2021) |
** 14 April 2020 to 13 April 2021
*** 2018-2020 North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo outbreak
**** Estimate from 2017
^Prevalence estimate rather than incidence
⁎
Estimates for the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections leading to asymptomatic disease vary with each new variant and changes in the background immunity of the general population. We use initial estimates from the D614 strain for the purposes of this exercise.