Table 4.

Risk prediction model

Variables (initial model)	Adjusted odds ratio 120 day MACE or death	Beta-coefficient	P-value
Chest pain or dyspnoea	2.2 (1.2–4.1)	0.799	0.01
New or presumably new ECG changes	1.3 (0.7–2.5)	0.279	0.375
Troponin delta +1 to <2x 99th percentile	Reference		Reference
ȃTroponin delta +2–4x 99th percentile	2.2 (1.3–3.5)	0.77	0.002
ȃTroponin delta +>4x 99th percentile	1.7 (1.0–2.9)	0.529	0.051
ESC/ESA surgical risk <1%	Reference		Reference
ȃESC/ESA surgical risk 1%–5%	1.1 (0.6–2.0)	0.071	0.816
ȃESC/ESA surgical risk >5%	2.8 (1.4–5.6)	1.024	0.005
Urgency: elective	Reference		Reference
ȃUrgency: < 24 h	2.6 (1.5–4.4)	0.938	<0.001
ȃUrgency: 2–7 days	2.4 (1.4–4.0)	0.863	<0.001
Post-operative bleeding	0.5 (0.3–0.8)	−2.565	0.005

Derivation of risk prediction model for MACEs and all-cause death within 120 days following perioperative myocardial infarction/injury likely due to type 2 myocardial infarction using logistic binary regression model, incorporating perioperative variables available at time of detection of likely due to type 2 myocardial infarction-perioperative myocardial infarction/injury.

ECG, electrocardiogram; ESA, European Society of Anaesthesiology; ESC, European Society of Cardiology; MACE, major adverse cardiac event.