Table 3.
Binary logistic regression of factors associated with improvement and deterioration in recovery status between 6 and 12 months
| Improvement (excluding those fully recovered at 6 months) | Deterioration (excluding those with no recovery at 6 months) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Referent no change | Referent no change plus deterioration | Referent no change | Referent no change plus improvement | ||
|
N = 6082 OR (95% CI) |
N = 6540 OR (95% CI) |
N = 10,877 OR (95% CI) |
N = 12,056 OR (95% CI) |
||
| Age | 0.99 (0.99,1.00) | 0.99 (0.99,1.00) | 0.99 (0.99,1.00) | 0.99 (0.99,1.00) | |
| Sex | Female | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Male | 0.99 (0.87,1.13) | 0.98 (0.86,1.12) | 0.89 (0.79,1.01) | 0.91 (0.81,1.03) | |
| Ethnic group | White | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| South Asian | 0.94 (0.45,1.95) | 0.93 (0.45,1.91) | 1.23 (0.76,2.01) | 1.30 (0.80,2.11) | |
| Black | 2.22 (0.82,6.04) | 2.43 (0.89,6.62) | 0.78 (0.27,2.22) | 0.74 (0.26,2.07) | |
| Other | 1.52 (0.86,2.68) | 1.53 (0.87,2.69) | 0.85 (0.49,1.50) | 0.86 (0.49,1.51) | |
| Missing | 0.93 (0.64,1.36) | 0.97 (0.67,1.40) | 0.93 (0.65,1.34) | 0.95 (0.66,1.36) | |
| SIMD quintile | 1 (most deprived) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 2 | 1.16 (0.97,1.38) | 1.18 (0.97,1.41) | 0.94 (0.80,1.11) | 0.93 (0.79,1.09) | |
| 3 | 1.28 (1.07,1.54) | 1.33 (1.11,1.59) | 0.79 (0.66,0.94) | 0.77 (0.65,0.92) | |
| 4 | 1.26 (1.06,1.52) | 1.29 (1.08,1.55) | 0.90 (0.76,1.07) | 0.88 (0.75,1.04) | |
| 5 (least deprived) | 1.37 (1.14,1.65) | 1.44 (1.20,1.73) | 0.73 (0.61,0.86) | 0.72 (0.60,0.86) | |
| Pre-existing long-term conditions | 0 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 1 | 1.03 (0.87,1.22) | 1.05 (0.89,1.25) | 0.98 (0.83,1.17) | 0.97 (0.82,1.14) | |
| 2–3 | 0.92 (0.77,1.10) | 0.94 (0.78,1.12) | 0.99 (0.83,1.18) | 0.98 (0.82,1.17) | |
| ≥4 | 0.98 (0.71,1.36) | 0.94 (0.68,1.30) | 1.40 (1.03,1.89) | 1.40 (1.04,1.89) | |
| Asthma/bronchitis/ COPD | No | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Yes | 0.94 (0.82,1.09) | 0.93 (0.80,1.06) | 1.10 (0.95,1.26) | 1.09 (0.95,1.25) | |
| CHD | No | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Yes | 1.17 (0.86,1.61) | 1.16 (0.85,1.58) | 1.07 (0.79,1.44) | 1.06 (0.79,1.43) | |
| Depression/anxiety | No | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Yes | 0.81 (0.71,0.91) | 0.78 (0.69,0.88) | 1.35 (1.20,1.51) | 1.34 (1.19,1.50) | |
| Diabetes | No | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Yes | 1.03 (0.79,1.36) | 1.04 (0.79,1.36) | 1.05 (0.81,1.36) | 1.03 (0.80,1.33) | |
| Variant period | preVOC | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| No dominant (1) | 1.18 (1.01,1.37) | 1.15 (0.99,1.33) | 1.17 (1.01,1.35) | 1.15 (0.99,1.32) | |
| Alpha | 1.27 (0.97,1.65) | 1.29 (0.99,1.68) | 0.96 (0.73,1.26) | 0.93 (0.71,1.22) | |
| No dominant (2) | 0.77 (0.48,1.25) | 0.75 (0.47,1.21) | 0.94 (0.63,1.39) | 0.95 (0.64,1.40) | |
| Delta | 1.47 (1.13,1.92) | 1.46 (1.13,1.90) | 0.96 (0.74,1.25) | 0.92 (0.71,1.19) | |
| No dominant (3) | 0.63 (0.18,2.21) | 0.65 (0.19,2.26) | 0.45 (0.10,1.91) | 0.44 (0.10,1.89) | |
| Vaccinated | No | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 1 dose | 0.79 (0.59,1.07) | 0.80 (0.59,1.07) | 1.08 (0.82,1.42) | 1.12 (0.86,1.47) | |
| ≥2 doses | 0.79 (0.60,1.04) | 0.78 (0.59,1.03) | 0.99 (0.76,1.29) | 1.05 (0.81,1.37) | |
| Infection severity | Not hospitalised | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Hospitalised | 0.75 (0.59,0.95) | 0.74 (0.58,0.94) | 1.09 (0.84,1.43) | 1.08 (0.83,1.40) | |
Odds ratios are adjusted (unadjusted odds ratios provided in Supplementary Table 2).
Previously infected individuals who provided 6- and 12-month follow-up. The sample size in each column is composed as follows:
Improved referent to no change: 12,947 previously infected with follow-up at 6 and 12 months excluding 6407 people who were already fully recovered at 6 months follow-up (so could not improve) and excluding people whose recovery status deteriorated (458 after deducting those already excluded) = 6082.
Improved referent to no change or deterioration: 12,947 previously infected with follow-up at 6 and 12 months excluding 6407 people who were already fully recovered at 6 months follow-up (so could not improve) = 6540. Other people who deteriorated are included in the referent category so are not excluded.
Deterioration referent to no change: 12,947 previously infected with follow-up at 6 and 12 months excluding 891 people who reported no recovery at 6 months (so could not deteriorate) and excluding people whose recovery status improved (1179 after deducting those already excluded) = 10,877.
Deterioration referent to no change or improvement: 12,947 previously infected with follow-up at 6 and 12 months excluding 891 people who reported no recovery at 6 months (so could not deteriorate) = 12,056. Other people who improved are included in the referent category so are not excluded.
OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval, SIMD Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, CHD coronary heart disease, VOC variant of concern. All statistical tests are two-sided.