. 2023 May 31;68:1605763. doi: 10.3389/ijph.2023.1605763

TABLE 2.

Summary certainty assessment for modelled prevalence estimates of low back pain, neck pain, and knee osteoarthritis following Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation guidelines 30 (Global Burden of Disease Study 2019–Australia, Brazil, Canada, Spain, and Switzerland [1990 to 2019]).

Country Condition	GRADE criteria				Range of modelled prevalence (95% UI)	Overall certainty
Country Condition	Risk of bias	Inconsistency	Indirectness	Imprecision	Range of modelled prevalence (95% UI)	Overall certainty
Australia
LBP	Very serious ↓↓	Not serious	Not serious	Not serious	11.6 to 12.4 (10.2–13.9)	Low ^a ^, ^b ⊕⊕○○
NP	Very serious ↓↓	Not serious	Serious ↓	Not serious	1.3 to 1.5 (1.0–1.9)	Very low ^a ^, ^b ^, ^c ⊕○○○
Knee OA	Very serious ↓↓	Not serious	Serious ↓	Not serious	5.4 to 8.3 (4.6–9.5)	Very low ^a ^, ^b ^, ^c ⊕○○○
Brazil
LBP	Very serious ↓↓	Not serious	Not serious	Not serious	6.7 to 8.7 (5.8–9.9)	Low ^a ^, ^b ⊕⊕○○
NP	Very serious ↓↓	Not serious	Not serious	Not serious	1.9 to 3.0 (1.5–3.9)	Low ^a ^, ^b ^, ^c ⊕⊕○○
Knee OA	Very serious ↓↓	Not serious	Serious ↓	Not serious	2.7 to 5.4 (2.3–6.1)	Very low ^a ^, ^b ^, ^c ⊕○○○
Canada
LBP	Very serious ↓↓	Not serious	Not serious	Not serious	10.1 to 12.4 (9.8–14.2)	Low ^a ^, ^b ⊕⊕○○
NP	Very serious ↓↓	Not serious	Serious ↓	Not serious	3.6 to 4.3 (2.9–5.4)	Very low ^a ^, ^b ^, ^c ⊕○○○
Knee OA	Very serious ↓↓	Not serious	Not serious	Not serious	3.0 to 5.1 (2.6–5.9)	Low ^a ^, ^b ⊕⊕○○
Spain
LBP	Very serious ↓↓	Not serious	Not serious	Not serious	10.1 to 11.1 (9.0–12.2)	Low ^a ^, ^b ⊕⊕○○
NP	Very serious ↓↓	Serious ↓	Not serious	Not serious	2.6 to 3.9 (2.2–4.8)	Very low ^a ^, ^b ^, ^d ⊕○○○
Knee OA	Very serious ↓↓	Not serious	Not serious	Not serious	5.8 to 8.4 (5.0–9.6)	Low ^a ^, ^b ⊕⊕○○
Switzerland
LBP	Very serious ↓↓	Serious ↓	Not serious	Not serious	15.0 to 19.2 (13.1–20.3)	Very low ^a ^, ^b ^, ^d ⊕○○○
NP	Very serious ↓↓	Not serious	Serious ↓	Not serious	4.6 to 4.9 (3.7–6.2)	Very low ^a ^, ^b ^, ^c ⊕○○○
Knee OA	Very serious ↓↓	Not serious	Serious ↓	Not serious	6.0 to 7.9 (5.2–8.9)	Very low ⊕○○○

^{^a}

Downgraded −1 for risk of bias, due to concerns about the credibility of the model, influenced by its conceptualisation and structure.

^{^b}

Downgraded −1 for risk of bias, due to concerns about the certainty and exhaustiveness of model inputs.

^{^c}

Downgraded −1 for indirectness, due to indirectness of model inputs with respect to the model, influenced by lack of primary data input studies.

^{^d}

Downgraded −1 for inconsistency, due to unexplained variability in modelled outputs.