Table 4.
Forecast results of income and expenditure of Shanghai basic medical insurance pooling fund for employees from 2021 to 2035 (medium scenario).
| Year | When the growth rate of per capita medical expenses due to non-demographic factors is 2% faster than the growth rate of the actual contribution base | When the growth rate of per capita medical expenses due to non-demographic factors is 1% faster than the growth rate of the actual contribution base | When the growth rate of per capita medical expenses due to non-demographic factors is equal to the growth rate of the actual contribution base | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pooling fund income | Pooling fund expenditure | Pooling fund income | Pooling fund expenditure | Pooled fund income | Pooling fund expenditure | |
| 2021 | 79.111 | 49.204 | 79.111 | 48.302 | 79.111 | 47.408 |
| 2022 | 82.472 | 53.759 | 82.472 | 52.29 | 82.472 | 50.847 |
| 2023 | 85.416 | 58.791 | 85.416 | 56.661 | 85.416 | 54.588 |
| 2024 | 88.832 | 64.189 | 88.832 | 61.296 | 88.832 | 58.507 |
| 2025 | 92.385 | 69.97 | 92.385 | 66.202 | 92.385 | 62.604 |
| 2026 | 96.051 | 76.18 | 96.051 | 71.415 | 96.051 | 66.907 |
| 2027 | 100.058 | 83.098 | 100.058 | 77.185 | 100.058 | 71.644 |
| 2028 | 103.915 | 90.636 | 103.915 | 83.415 | 103.915 | 76.71 |
| 2029 | 108.114 | 98.689 | 108.114 | 89.991 | 108.114 | 81.99 |
| 2030 | 112.554 | 107.301 | 112.554 | 96.943 | 112.554 | 87.502 |
| 2031 | 117.19 | 116.466 | 117.19 | 104.252 | 117.19 | 93.223 |
| 2032 | 122.252 | 126.735 | 122.252 | 112.399 | 122.252 | 99.573 |
| 2033 | 127.421 | 137.822 | 127.421 | 121.106 | 127.421 | 106.29 |
| 2034 | 133.043 | 149.432 | 133.043 | 130.094 | 133.043 | 113.112 |
| 2035 | 138.713 | 161.633 | 138.713 | 139.414 | 138.713 | 120.084 |
Unit: billion yuan.