Table 5.
Forecast results of income and expenditure of Shanghai basic medical insurance pooling fund for employees from 2021 to 2035 (high scenario).
| Year | When the growth rate of per capita medical expenses due to non-demographic factors is 2% faster than the growth rate of the actual contribution base | When the growth rate of per capita medical expenses due to non-demographic factors is 1% faster than the growth rate of the actual contribution base | When the growth rate of per capita medical expenses due to non-demographic factors is equal to the growth rate of the actual contribution base | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pooling fund income | Pooling fund expenditure | Pooling fund income | Pooling fund expenditure | Pooling fund income | Pooling fund expenditure | |
| 2021 | 79.496 | 49.284 | 79.496 | 48.379 | 79.496 | 47.484 |
| 2022 | 83.291 | 53.934 | 83.291 | 52.458 | 83.291 | 51.009 |
| 2023 | 86.863 | 59.111 | 86.863 | 56.965 | 86.863 | 54.879 |
| 2024 | 91.131 | 64.713 | 91.131 | 61.79 | 91.131 | 58.974 |
| 2025 | 95.736 | 70.758 | 95.736 | 66.939 | 95.736 | 63.294 |
| 2026 | 100.628 | 77.292 | 100.628 | 72.446 | 100.628 | 67.862 |
| 2027 | 106.044 | 84.603 | 106.044 | 78.568 | 106.044 | 72.913 |
| 2028 | 111.51 | 92.615 | 111.51 | 85.216 | 111.51 | 78.348 |
| 2029 | 117.533 | 101.231 | 117.533 | 92.284 | 117.533 | 84.054 |
| 2030 | 124.03 | 110.51 | 124.03 | 99.81 | 124.03 | 90.059 |
| 2031 | 130.905 | 120.442 | 130.905 | 107.771 | 130.905 | 96.334 |
| 2032 | 138.396 | 131.593 | 138.396 | 116.66 | 138.396 | 103.305 |
| 2033 | 146.19 | 143.691 | 146.19 | 126.207 | 146.19 | 110.715 |
| 2034 | 154.643 | 156.451 | 154.643 | 136.138 | 154.643 | 118.308 |
| 2035 | 163.36 | 169.961 | 163.36 | 146.52 | 163.36 | 126.137 |
Unit: billion yuan.