Table 2.
Efficiency estimates, unconditional and conditional, March 1 to September 1.
| State | Unconditional | Conditional (Exogenous variables labeled) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eff. | Any 4 | All 4 | S/B/L | SIPO | |
| Alabama | 0.6231 | 0.6264 | – | 0.6252 | 0.6252 |
| Alaska | 0.7341 | 0.7436 | 0.7432 | – | 0.7367 |
| Arizona | 0.6481 | 0.6582 | 0.6567 | – | 0.6519 |
| Arkansas | 0.6000 | 0.6059 | – | – | – |
| California | 0.7937 | 0.8067 | – | 0.7988 | 0.8103 |
| Colorado | 0.8650 | 0.8679 | – | 0.8685 | 0.8685 |
| Connecticut | 0.9775 | 0.9870 | 0.9775 | – | 0.9847 |
| Delaware | 0.8697 | 0.8906 | 0.8851 | – | 0.8772 |
| DC | 0.9776 | 0.9977 | – | 0.9847 | 0.9846 |
| Florida | 0.6852 | 0.6990 | 0.6949 | – | 0.6879 |
| Georgia | 0.6983 | 0.7025 | – | 0.7002 | 0.7008 |
| Hawaii | 0.9176 | 0.9430 | 0.9368 | – | 0.9287 |
| Idaho | 0.7596 | 0.7677 | 0.7653 | – | 0.7632 |
| Illinois | 0.7575 | 0.7629 | – | 0.7641 | 0.7642 |
| Indiana | 0.7648 | 0.7686 | – | 0.7687 | 0.7687 |
| Iowa | 0.9827 | 0.9900 | – | – | – |
| Kansas | 0.9244 | 0.9422 | 0.9391 | – | 0.9285 |
| Kentucky | 0.6000 | 0.6127 | – | – | – |
| Louisiana | 0.6877 | 0.6984 | – | 0.6923 | 0.6923 |
| Maine | 0.8186 | 0.8350 | 0.8291 | – | 0.8342 |
| Maryland | 0.9055 | 0.9288 | 0.9244 | – | 0.9109 |
| Massachusetts | 0.8468 | 0.8812 | – | – | – |
| Michigan | 0.7132 | 0.7173 | – | 0.7160 | 0.7194 |
| Minnesota | 0.9737 | 0.9883 | – | 0.9737 | 0.9812 |
| Mississippi | 0.6795 | 0.6842 | – | 0.6816 | 0.6816 |
| Missouri | 0.6337 | 0.6368 | – | 0.6352 | 0.6360 |
| Montana | 0.8225 | 0.8383 | 0.8331 | – | 0.8254 |
| Nebraska | 0.9736 | 0.9824 | – | – | 0.9732 |
| Nevada | 0.7194 | 0.7245 | – | 0.7229 | 0.7247 |
| New Hampshire | 0.8534 | 0.8671 | – | 0.8581 | 0.8617 |
| New Jersey | 0.8278 | 0.8370 | 0.8278 | – | 0.8351 |
| New Mexico | 0.6582 | 0.6732 | 0.6727 | – | 0.6631 |
| New York | 0.7819 | 0.7874 | 0.7819 | – | 0.7914 |
| North Carolina | 0.7469 | 0.7584 | – | 0.7506 | 0.7519 |
| North Dakota | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | – | – | – |
| Ohio | 0.7616 | 0.7749 | 0.7714 | – | 0.7672 |
| Oklahoma | 0.6481 | 0.6561 | 0.6552 | – | 0.6516 |
| Oregon | 0.7650 | 0.7692 | – | 0.7702 | 0.7806 |
| Pennsylvania | 0.8111 | 0.8154 | – | 0.8149 | 0.8149 |
| Rhode Island | 0.8302 | 0.8484 | 0.8453 | – | 0.8347 |
| South Carolina | 0.6757 | 0.6893 | 0.6802 | – | 0.6781 |
| South Dakota | 0.8898 | 0.8930 | – | – | – |
| Tennessee | 0.6067 | 0.6103 | – | 0.6090 | 0.6090 |
| Texas | 0.7707 | 0.7829 | 0.7805 | – | 0.7735 |
| Utah | 0.8316 | 0.8369 | – | – | 0.8354 |
| Vermont | 0.8442 | 0.8594 | 0.8524 | – | 0.8497 |
| Virginia | 0.8097 | 0.8155 | – | 0.8145 | 0.8166 |
| Washington | 0.7427 | 0.7548 | – | 0.7475 | 0.7492 |
| West Virginia | 0.5738 | 0.5831 | 0.5824 | – | 0.5767 |
| Wisconsin | 0.8412 | 0.8459 | – | 0.8462 | 0.8464 |
| Wyoming | 0.8505 | 0.8567 | – | – | – |
| Mean efficiency (% Point) | 0.7857 | 1.297 | 0.496 | 0.393 | 0.609 |
| Maximum change (% Point) | – | 5.15 (MA) | 4.09 (NM) | 1.61 (IL) | 1.89 (CA) |
| Minimum change (% Point) | – | 0.00 (ND) | 0.00 (NJ) | 0.00 (MN) | 0.00 (NE) |
| Census division | Eff. | Percentage point improvement | |||
| New England | 0.8618 | 2.075 | 0.973 | 0.555 | 0.951 |
| Middle Atlantic | 0.8069 | 0.777 | 0.000 | 0.474 | 0.850 |
| East North Central | 0.7676 | 0.811 | 1.282 | 0.599 | 0.721 |
| West North Central | 0.9111 | 0.839 | 1.592 | 0.094 | 0.386 |
| South Atlantic | 0.7714 | 1.693 | 1.536 | 0.539 | 0.608 |
| East South Central | 0.6273 | 0.971 | – | 0.340 | 0.340 |
| West South Central | 0.6766 | 1.325 | 1.202 | 0.674 | 0.518 |
| Mountain | 0.7693 | 1.139 | 1.371 | 0.440 | 0.527 |
| Pacific | 0.7906 | 1.544 | 1.712 | 0.649 | 1.133 |
Note: To interpret the efficiency estimates, a value of less than 1 for the unconditional and conditional order-m estimators correspond to being “inefficient”, while a value of greater than 1 corresponds to “super-efficient”. SIPO refers to shelter-in-place orders. Business refers to non-essential business closures. Large refers to large gathering bans. Travel refers to mandatory quarantine for travelers. Any 4 refers to any of the 4 policies in place on day j. All 4 refers to all 4 of the policies in place on day j. S/B/L refers to a SIPO, business, and large policy in place on day j.