Table 3.
Efficiency estimates, conditional and unconditional, first 100 days.
| State | Unconditional | Conditional (Exogenous variables labeled) |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eff. | Any 4 | All 4 | S/B/L | SIPO | SIPO & Dist. | |
| Alabama | 0.6231 | 0.6290 | – | 0.6269 | 0.6269 | 0.6356 |
| Alaska | 0.7341 | 0.7517 | 0.7509 | – | 0.7389 | 0.8625 |
| Arizona | 0.6481 | 0.6666 | 0.6640 | – | 0.6551 | 0.6880 |
| Arkansas | 0.6000 | 0.6096 | – | – | – | – |
| California | 0.7937 | 0.8057 | – | 0.8031 | 0.8088 | 0.8164 |
| Colorado | 0.8649 | 0.8700 | – | 0.8715 | 0.8715 | 0.8828 |
| Connecticut | 0.9775 | 0.9951 | 0.9775 | – | 0.9908 | 0.9936 |
| Delaware | 0.8689 | 0.9064 | 0.8974 | – | 0.8830 | 0.8851 |
| DC | 0.9774 | 0.9957 | – | 0.9907 | 0.9907 | 0.9963 |
| Florida | 0.6852 | 0.7108 | 0.7031 | – | 0.6902 | 0.7224 |
| Georgia | 0.6983 | 0.7057 | – | 0.7018 | 0.7029 | 0.7040 |
| Hawaii | 0.9175 | 0.9620 | 0.9530 | – | 0.9336 | 0.9835 |
| Idaho | 0.7595 | 0.7729 | 0.7701 | – | 0.7664 | 0.8013 |
| Illinois | 0.7575 | 0.7674 | – | 0.7698 | 0.7698 | 0.7715 |
| Indiana | 0.7654 | 0.7722 | – | 0.7728 | 0.7738 | 0.7753 |
| Iowa | 0.9826 | 0.9960 | – | – | – | – |
| Kansas | 0.9244 | 0.9575 | 0.9516 | – | 0.9320 | 0.9346 |
| Kentucky | 0.6000 | 0.6227 | – | – | – | – |
| Louisiana | 0.6877 | 0.6972 | – | 0.6962 | 0.6962 | 0.7046 |
| Maine | 0.8185 | 0.8473 | 0.8379 | – | 0.8315 | 0.8679 |
| Maryland | 0.9055 | 0.9481 | 0.9404 | – | 0.9154 | 0.9179 |
| Massachusetts | 0.8462 | 0.8897 | – | – | – | – |
| Michigan | 0.7132 | 0.7206 | – | 0.7185 | 0.7248 | 0.7267 |
| Minnesota | 0.9737 | 0.9861 | – | 0.9737 | 0.9876 | 0.9882 |
| Mississippi | 0.6795 | 0.6879 | – | 0.6834 | 0.6834 | 0.6877 |
| Missouri | 0.6337 | 0.6393 | – | 0.6364 | 0.6379 | 0.6391 |
| Montana | 0.8223 | 0.8507 | 0.8412 | – | 0.8281 | 0.8329 |
| Nebraska | 0.9732 | 0.9893 | – | – | 0.9732 | 0.9772 |
| Nevada | 0.7194 | 0.7287 | – | 0.7258 | 0.7291 | 0.7323 |
| New Hampshire | 0.8539 | 0.8666 | – | 0.8629 | 0.8682 | 0.8877 |
| New Jersey | 0.8275 | 0.8374 | 0.8275 | – | 0.8425 | 0.8455 |
| New Mexico | 0.6582 | 0.6860 | 0.6851 | – | 0.6673 | 0.6692 |
| New York | 0.7818 | 0.7904 | 0.7818 | – | 0.7960 | 0.8034 |
| North Carolina | 0.7469 | 0.7569 | – | 0.7538 | 0.7562 | 0.7619 |
| North Dakota | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | – | – | – | – |
| Ohio | 0.7616 | 0.7616 | 0.7797 | – | 0.7720 | 0.7736 |
| Oklahoma | 0.6481 | 0.6481 | 0.6613 | – | 0.6545 | 0.6577 |
| Oregon | 0.7650 | 0.7650 | – | 0.7746 | 0.7788 | 0.7851 |
| Pennsylvania | 0.8111 | 0.8111 | – | 0.8182 | 0.8182 | 0.8196 |
| Rhode Island | 0.8302 | 0.8638 | 0.8581 | – | 0.8385 | 0.8570 |
| South Carolina | 0.6767 | 0.6908 | 0.6840 | – | 0.6802 | 0.7025 |
| South Dakota | 0.8898 | 0.8956 | – | – | – | – |
| Tennessee | 0.6067 | 0.6133 | – | 0.6109 | 0.6109 | 0.6120 |
| Texas | 0.7707 | 0.7930 | 0.7889 | – | 0.7758 | 0.7769 |
| Utah | 0.8316 | 0.8412 | – | – | 0.8386 | 0.8551 |
| Vermont | 0.8441 | 0.8711 | 0.8593 | – | 0.8545 | 0.9139 |
| Virginia | 0.8097 | 0.8203 | – | 0.8186 | 0.8224 | 0.8259 |
| Washington | 0.7427 | 0.7539 | – | 0.7515 | 0.7547 | 0.7573 |
| West Virginia | 0.5738 | 0.5909 | 0.5897 | – | 0.5792 | 0.5835 |
| Wisconsin | 0.8412 | 0.8498 | – | 0.8505 | 0.8509 | 0.8536 |
| Wyoming | 0.8505 | 0.8620 | – | – | – | – |
| % Point improvement | ||||||
| Mean efficiency | 0.7857 | 2.1 | 0.93 | 0.76 | 1.0 | 2.8 |
| Max change | – | 5.2 (MA) | 4.1 (NM) | 1.6 (IL) | 1.9 (CA) | 17.5 (AK) |
| Min change | – | 0.0 (ND) | 0.0 (NJ) | 0.0 (MN) | 0.0 (NE) | 0.4 (NE) |
| Census division | Eff | % Point improvement | ||||
| New England | 0.8617 | 3.154 | 1.801 | 1.061 | 1.369 | 4.128 |
| Middle Atlantic | 0.8068 | 1.091 | 0.000 | 0.878 | 1.504 | 1.987 |
| East North Central | 0.7678 | 1.492 | 2.372 | 1.114 | 1.365 | 1.615 |
| West North Central | 0.9110 | 1.356 | 2.946 | 0.173 | 0.738 | 0.587 |
| South Atlantic | 0.7713 | 2.656 | 2.843 | 1.010 | 1.135 | 2.279 |
| East South Central | 0.6273 | 1.739 | – | 0.629 | 0.629 | 1.108 |
| West South Central | 0.6766 | 2.081 | 2.223 | 1.247 | 0.958 | 1.253 |
| Mountain | 0.7693 | 2.007 | 2.502 | 0.824 | 0.983 | 2.739 |
| Pacific | 0.7906 | 2.351 | 3.167 | 1.201 | 1.562 | 6.368 |
Note: To interpret the efficiency estimates, a value of less than 1 for the unconditional and conditional order-m estimators correspond to being “inefficient”, while a value of greater than 1 corresponds to “super-efficient”. SIPO refers to shelter-in-place orders. Business refers to non-essential business closures. Large refers to large gathering bans. Travel refers to mandatory quarantine for travelers. Any 4 refers to any of the 4 policies in place on day j. All 4 refers to all 4 of the policies in place on day j. S/B/L refers to a SIPO, business, and large policy in place on day j. SIPO & Distance refers to having a SIPO social distancing policy, as well as SafeGraph social mobility environmental variables.