Table 3.

Results of the association analysis between the known PDAC risk factors and the IPMN progression.

Characteristic	No WFs at diagnosis				All IPMNs
	HR (95% CI)	p	No. of prog.	No. of no prog.	HR (95% CI)	p	No. of prog.	No. of no prog.
Age (years)	1.03 (1.01–1.06)	0.011	91	207	1.03 (1.01–1.05)	0.008	120	234
Sex (male vs. female)	1.57 (1.01–2.38)	0.035	43 vs. 48	73 vs. 134	1.43 (0.99–2.05)	0.052	60 vs. 60	89 vs. 145
Smoking (smokers vs. non-smokers)	0.84 (0.54–1.32)	0.453	30 vs. 61	72 vs. 135	0.95 (0.65–1.39)	0.785	44 vs. 76	85 vs. 149
Moderate smokers vs. light smokers	0.90 (0.36–2.26)	0.83	8 vs. 12	24 vs. 41	1.18 (0.59–2.35)	0.638	17 vs. 16	30 vs. 44
Heavy smokers vs. light smokers	3.81 (1.43–10.09)	0.007	8 vs. 12	6 vs. 41	2.98 (1.26–7.04)	0.013	9 vs. 16	8 vs. 44
Alcohol consumption (drinkers vs. non-drinkers)	0.97 (0.61–1.52)	0.86	38 vs. 53	89 vs. 118	1.07 (0.73–1.57)	0.725	53 vs. 67	100 vs. 134
Underweight (<18 kg/m2)	2.07 (0.91–4.70)	0.084	7 vs. 45	11 vs. 126	1.59 (0.71–3.54)	0.261	7 vs. 59	12 vs. 139
Overweight (26–30 kg/m2)	1.29 (0.80–2.11)	0.299	26 vs. 45	53 vs. 126	1.25 (0.81–1.92)	0.311	34 vs. 59	62 vs. 139
Obesity and class 3 obesity (>30.1 kg/m2)	2.46 (1.22–4.95)	0.012	10 vs. 45	11 vs. 126	2.03 (1.17–3.52)	0.012	17 vs. 59	13 vs. 139
Family history of pancreatic cancer	1.27 (0.66–2.46)	0.479	10 vs. 81	21 vs. 186	1.36 (0.77–2.38)	0.29	14 vs. 106	22 vs. 212
Main duct vs. branch duct	10.17 (1.34–77.13)	0.025	1 vs. 78	0 vs. 204	3.52 (160–7.74)	0.002	7 vs. 91	1 vs. 224
Mixed type vs. branch duct	2.37 (1.24–4.55)	0.009	12 vs. 78	3 vs. 204	1.69 (1.04–2.76)	0.035	22 vs. 91	9 vs. 224
Type 2 diabetes	1.39 (0.77–2.52)	0.27	13 vs. 78	20 vs. 187	1.18 (0.70–1.98)	0.536	17 vs. 103	24 vs. 210
WFs and HRSs
Cyst size (mm)	1.07 (1.04–1.10)	3.00 × 10−5	207	91	1.02 (1.00–1.04)	0.016	120	234
Cyst size 15–29.9 vs. <14.9 mm	1.81 (1.15–2.84)	0.009	59 vs. 32	82 vs. 125	1.67 (1.11–2.50)	0.013	59 vs. 40	84 vs. 133
Cyst size >30 vs. <14.9 mm	-	-	-	-	2.26 (1.31–3.94)	0.004	21 vs. 40	17 vs. 133
Pancreatitis (acute and chronic pancreatitis)	1.24 (0.60–2.50)	0.454	9 vs. 82	17 vs. 190	1.60 (1.00–2.57)	0.048	23 vs. 97	21 vs. 213
Acute pancreatitis	-	-	-	-	3.02 (1.40–6.53)	0.005	8 vs. 99	2 vs. 216
Chronic pancreatitis	1.13 (0.51–2.48)	0.757	7 vs. 84	12 vs. 193	1.22 (0.67–2.22)	0.508	13 vs. 99	14 vs. 216

The analyses of BMI are all performed by comparing each category with normal weight (18.5–25 kg/m²). The association level of variables, cyst size >30 mm, and acute pancreatitis were not calculated in the model “No WFs at diagnosis” because there are two worrisome features. No. of prog. = the number of subjects who showed an IPMN progression; the non-continuous variables are reported as the number of analysed subjects vs. the number of subjects of the reference category. No. of no prog. = the number of subjects who did not show an IPMN progression. All the analyses were adjusted by sex and age.

PDAC, pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma; IPMN, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm; WFs, worrisome features; BMI, body mass index.

Text in bold indicates associations with p≤0.05.