Table 4.
Characteristics of 3600 patients in NHS Digital high risk cohort and 3600 patients with highest predicted risks of covid-19 related death with QCOVID4 in validation cohort
| Characteristic | Validation cohort | High risk QCOVID4 | High risk NHS Digital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total No of patients | 145 397 | 3600 | 3600 |
| Men | 62 305 (42.85) | 1682 (46.72) | 1500 (41.67) |
| Covid-19 related deaths | 461 (0.32) | 333 (9.25) | 95 (2.64) |
| Hospital admissions for covid-19 | 2873 (1.98) | 815 (22.64) | 462 (12.83) |
| Mean (SD) age (years) | 42.96 (16.41) | 85.00 (7.30) | 55.40 (17.87) |
| Mean (SD) Townsend material deprivation score | −0.01 (3.03) | −0.15 (2.94) | −0.05 (3.04) |
| Mean (SD) body mass index | 26.62 (5.67) | 25.69 (5.87) | 27.86 (6.06) |
| Age (years): | |||
| 20-29 | 34 453 (23.70) | — | 286 (7.94) |
| 30-39 | 35 586 (24.48) | — | 495 (13.75) |
| 40-49 | 28 922 (19.89) | — | 596 (16.56) |
| 50-59 | 22 507 (15.48) | 11 (0.31) | 692 (19.22) |
| 60-69 | 12 745 (8.77) | 97 (2.69) | 663 (18.42) |
| 70-79 | 7056 (4.85) | 653 (18.14) | 523 (14.53) |
| 80-100 | 4128 (2.84) | 2839 (78.86) | 345 (9.58) |
| Ethnic group: | |||
| White | 123 145 (84.70) | 3341 (92.81) | 3006 (83.50) |
| Indian | 3523 (2.42) | 54 (1.50) | 59 (1.64) |
| Pakistani | 2831 (1.95) | 48 (1.33) | 78 (2.17) |
| Bangladeshi | 1894 (1.30) | 26 (0.72) | 47 (1.31) |
| Other Asian | 2476 (1.70) | 19 (0.53) | 36 (1.00) |
| Black Caribbean | 1142 (0.79) | 40 (1.11) | 52 (1.44) |
| Black African | 3256 (2.24) | 35 (0.97) | 160 (4.44) |
| Chinese | 1128 (0.78) | 11 (0.31) | 32 (0.89) |
| Other ethnic group | 6002 (4.13) | 26 (0.72) | 130 (3.61) |
| Chronic kidney disease: | |||
| No chronic kidney disease | 141 747 (97.49) | 2244 (62.33) | 3017 (83.81) |
| Chronic kidney disease stage 3 | 3153 (2.17) | 1179 (32.75) | 282 (7.83) |
| Chronic kidney disease stage 4 | 167 (0.11) | 96 (2.67) | 37 (1.03) |
| Chronic kidney disease stage 5 only | 164 (0.11) | 59 (1.64) | 110 (3.06) |
| Chronic kidney disease stage 5 with dialysis | 53 (0.04) | 5 (0.14) | 41 (1.14) |
| Chronic kidney disease stage 5 with transplantation | 113 (0.08) | 17 (0.47) | 113 (3.14) |
| Learning disability: | |||
| No | 142 758 (98.18) | 3496 (97.11) | 3443 (95.64) |
| Yes | 2553 (1.76) | 102 (2.83) | 72 (2.00) |
| Down’s syndrome | 86 (0.06) | * | 85 (2.36) |
| Chemotherapy in past 12 months: | |||
| None | 144 888 (99.65) | 3435 (95.42) | 3342 (92.83) |
| Grade A | 207 (0.14) | 53 (1.47) | 31 (0.86) |
| Grade B | 284 (0.20) | 106 (2.94) | 212 (5.89) |
| Grade C | 18 (0.01) | 6 (0.17) | 15 (0.42) |
| No of covid vaccine doses: | |||
| 0 | 15 725 (10.82) | 211 (5.86) | 161 (4.47) |
| 1 | 4985 (3.43) | 82 (2.28) | 67 (1.86) |
| 2 | 39 637 (27.26) | 513 (14.25) | 485 (13.47) |
| 3 | 84 272 (57.96) | 2735 (75.97) | 2567 (71.31) |
| ≥4 | 778 (0.54) | 59 (1.64) | 320 (8.89) |
| No covid-19 drug treatments in follow-up Covid-19 drug treatments in follow-up: |
144 564 (99.43) | 3469 (96.36) | 3096 (86.00) |
| Tocilizumab | 54 (0.04) | 13 (0.36) | 14 (0.39) |
| Sotrovimab | 406 (0.28) | 50 (1.39) | 292 (8.11) |
| Sarilumab | 22 (0.02) | 7 (0.19) | * |
| Casirivimab and Imdevimab | 20 (0.01) | 10 (0.28) | 8 (0.22) |
| Remdesivir | 108 (0.07) | 29 (0.81) | 24 (0.67) |
| Molnupiravir | 110 (0.08) | 13 (0.36) | 95 (2.64) |
| Paxlovid | 113 (0.08) | 9 (0.25) | 68 (1.89) |
| SARS-CoV-2 infection before study entry | 16 014 (11.01) | 199 (5.53) | 333 (9.25) |
| Blood cancer | 998 (0.69) | 216 (6.00) | 526 (14.61) |
| Bone marrow transplantation in past six months | * | * | * |
| Respiratory cancer | 211 (0.15) | 74 (2.06) | 38 (1.06) |
| Radiotherapy in the past six months | 181 (0.12) | 54 (1.50) | 106 (2.94) |
| Solid organ transplantation | 49 (0.03) | 7 (0.19) | 46 (1.28) |
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 1889 (1.30) | 580 (16.11) | 331 (9.19) |
| Pulmonary hypertension | 87 (0.06) | 31 (0.86) | 23 (0.64) |
| Coronary heart disease | 3312 (2.28) | 935 (25.97) | 290 (8.06) |
| Stroke | 2020 (1.39) | 675 (18.75) | 175 (4.86) |
| Atrial fibrillation | 2457 (1.69) | 955 (26.53) | 234 (6.50) |
| Congestive cardiac failure | 1251 (0.86) | 581 (16.14) | 159 (4.42) |
| Venous thromboembolism | 2269 (1.56) | 392 (10.89) | 236 (6.56) |
| Peripheral vascular disease | 586 (0.40) | 235 (6.53) | 56 (1.56) |
| Congenital heart disease | 821 (0.56) | 13 (0.36) | 45 (1.25) |
| Dementia | 1630 (1.12) | 1100 (30.56) | 103 (2.86) |
| Parkinson’s disease | 246 (0.17) | 129 (3.58) | 16 (0.44) |
| Epilepsy | 1911 (1.31) | 106 (2.94) | 103 (2.86) |
| Rare neurological conditions | 465 (0.32) | 27 (0.75) | 386 (10.72) |
| Cerebral palsy | 163 (0.11) | 2 (0.06) | 8 (0.22) |
| Osteoporotic fracture | 5429 (3.73) | 731 (20.31) | 282 (7.83) |
| Rheumatoid arthritis or systemic lupus erythematosus | 3310 (2.28) | 348 (9.67) | 365 (10.14) |
| Cirrhosis | 241 (0.17) | 40 (1.11) | 139 (3.86) |
| Bipolar disorder or schizophrenia | 1392 (0.96) | 58 (1.61) | 42 (1.17) |
| Inflammatory bowel disease | 1600 (1.10) | 57 (1.58) | 280 (7.78) |
| Sickle cell disease, HIV, or severe combined immunodeficiency | 383 (0.26) | 12 (0.33) | 349 (9.69) |
| Type 1 diabetes | 844 (0.58) | 16 (0.44) | 56 (1.56) |
| Type 2 diabetes | 6322 (4.35) | 997 (27.69) | 473 (13.14) |
Data are number (%) of participants unless stated otherwise. SD=standard deviation.
Ethnic groups based on categories in the 2021 census of England and Wales (www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/style-guide/ethnic-groups).
*
Cells with counts <5 suppressed.