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. 2023 Jun 7;2(6):pgad192. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad192

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© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Fig. 2. — Quantifying the pandemic potential of the B.1.1.529 lineage. A) Phylogenetic reconstruction and estimation of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA), identified South Africa on October 28, 2021 (95% HPD: October 20–November 5) as the most likely MRCA. B) Import risk map: countries are colored by their probability to import infectious individuals carrying the B.1.1.529 (Omicron BA.1) lineage. C, D) Projected weekly incidence in Estonia and the United States obtained from epidemic modeling, under different $R_{t}$ scenarios indicated by colored lines, where the lowest line corresponds to the lowest R_t scenario. Line thickness represents the range between the minimum and maximum assumed values of under-reporting in the source country (here South Africa). Points represent the observed incidence. E) Case counts simulated using the $R_{t}$ scenario that corresponds to the mean growth rate from the phylogenetic analysis. For each country, the date of the first reported case is indicated with a gray circle.