Fig 6. Model-derived projections for various scenarios in which the NPI parameter p₁, which indicates the fraction of the population practicing disease-avoiding behaviors in a second NPI phase in the Navajo Nation starting 14-September-2020, was adjusted to identify the threshold required to prevent a second surge in cases.

The red solid line corresponds to the MAP estimate for p₁, which is approximately 0.19. The blue broken line indicates the predicted trajectory for daily cases when p₁ is fixed at 0.15. The orange broken line corresponds to a scenario wherein p₁ is fixed at 0.22, the green broken line corresponds to a scenario wherein p₁ is fixed at 0.25, the pink broken line corresponds to a scenario wherein p₁ is fixed at 0.27, and the brown broken line corresponds to a scenario wherein p₁ is fixed at 0.35.