Table 3.

Estimated probability of type 2 transmission die-out number of iterations with no ongoing transmission as of December 31, 2026) and the expected number of affected modeled subpopulations out of 720 in 100 stochastic iterations for the scenarios modeled (see main text for descriptions).

Scenario	Probability of die out	Estimated expected affected modeled subpopulations out of 720 (median) [range]
RC (A0)	1%	40 (23) [5 – 158]
B0	0%	17 (11) [5 – 82]
C0	1%	36 (21) [5 – 198]
D0	0%	27 (19) [6 – 136]
E0	0%	53 (49) [6 – 197]
F0	0%	63 (49) [5 – 261]
A1	0%	69 (49) [15 – 279]
A2	2%	13 (7) [5 – 63]
A3	1%	33 (18) [5 – 187]
A4	0%	46 (28) [5 – 183]
A5	13%	42 (28) [5 – 174]
A6	15%	44 (32) [5 – 160]
A7	25%	34 (19) [4 – 155]
A8	20%	37 (26) [5 – 132]
A9	1%	27 (18) [5 – 116]
A2379	81%	6 (4) [3 – 49]
B2379	95%	4 (4) [3 –15]
A23579	85%	6 (4) [3 –48]
B23579	96%	4 (3) [3 –14]
G2379	95%	4 (4) [3 –15]
H2379	88%	5 (4) [3 –41]
I2379	97%	4 (4) [3 –13]
J2379	93%	4 (4) [3 –19]
B2	1%	9 (7) [5 –41]
G2	0%	9 (7) [5 –47]
G239	0%	7 (6) [5 –17]
G2369	58%	5 (5)[5 –16]

Abbreviations: RC, reference case, for details about scenarios see Table 1.