Table 3.
GRADE summary of findings for five-day isolation versus ten-day isolation for outcomes estimated from rapid antigen test data.
| Outcome | Absolute effect estimates |
Certainty of the evidence | Plain language summary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isolation for 5 days | Isolation for 10 days | |||
| All patients | ||||
| Onward transmission leading to hospitalisation (28 days) | 208 per 10,000 | 85 per 10,000 |
Very low Due to certainty of parameters (moderate) in the model and indirectness |
Whether isolation of 5 days compared with 10 days would increase onward transmission leading to hospitalisation for secondary cases is very uncertain. |
| Difference: 123 more per 10,000 (95% UI 74 more to 182 more) | ||||
| Onward transmission leading to death (90 days) | 46 per 10,000 | 19 per 10,000 |
Very low Due to certainty of parameters (moderate) in the model and indirectness |
Whether isolation of 5 days compared with 10 days would increase onward transmission leading to death for secondary cases is very uncertain. |
| Difference: 27 more per 10,000 (95% UI 7 more to 48 more) | ||||
| Asymptomatic patients | ||||
| Onward transmission leading to hospitalisation (28 days) | 108 per 10,000 | 85 per 10,000 |
Very low Due to certainty of parameters (moderate) in the model and indirectness |
Whether isolation for 5 days compared with 10 days would increase onward transmission leading to hospitalisation of secondary cases is very uncertain. |
| Difference: 23 more per 10,000 (95% UI 14 more to 33 more) | ||||
| Onward transmission leading to death (90 days) | 24 per 10,000 | 19 per 10,000 |
Very low Due to certainty of parameters (moderate) in the model and indirectness |
Whether isolation for 5 days compared with 10 days would increase onward transmission leading to death of secondary cases is very uncertain. |
| Difference: 5 more per 10,000 (95% UI 1 more to 9 more) | ||||
| Symptomatic patients | ||||
| Onward transmission leading to hospitalisation (28 days) | 271 per 10,000 | 85 per 10,000 |
Very Low Due to certainty of parameters (moderate) in the model and indirectness |
Whether isolation for 5 days compared with 10 days would increase onward transmission leading to hospitalisation of secondary cases is very uncertain. |
| Difference: 186 more per 10,000 (95% UI 113 more to 276 more) | ||||
| Onward transmission leading to death (90 days) | 60 per 10,000 | 19 per 10,000 |
Very Low Due to certainty of parameters (moderate) in the model and indirectness |
Whether isolation for 5 days compared with 10 days would increase onward transmission leading to death of secondary cases is very uncertain. |
| Difference: 41 more per 10,000 (95% UI 11 to 73 more) | ||||
UI, uncertainty interval. Model assumptions: we assume that all patients with a negative rapid antigen test are non-infectious and assume if the test is negative, the patients would stay negative status; the isolation adherence is 100%.