Fig. 4.

Population trajectories for southwestern willow flycatchers under variable selection due to climate change under the intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) emissions scenarios for the EC-Earth3 (middle impact) GCM. Each scenario compares responses where populations can adapt to warming conditions (“EP” or evolutionary potential runs), and 2 cases where populations cannot adapt and are fixed for either 3 or 2 warm-associated alleles. Solid lines are the mean of 10 MC replicates (dotted lines).