Table 4:
Estimates of remaining years of life expectancy for males at exact age 40, stratified by HIV mode of acquisition, ART start year, and viral load (VL) suppression (<50 cells/ml), prior AIDS, and CD4 count (cells/μL) at follow-up start (2015 onwards).
| ART start: 1996–2014 | CD4 count: | 0–49 | 50–99 | 100–199 | 200–349 | 350–499 | ≥500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| |||||||
| Acquisition route: Men having sex with men (MSM) | VL suppressed, no prior AIDS | 26.4 (25.4, 27.4) | 28.4 (27.4, 29.3) | 32.1 (31.3, 32.9) | 36.3 (35.7, 36.9) | 38.3 (37.8, 38.8) | 39.0 (38.5, 39.4) |
| VL suppressed, prior AIDS | 20.7 (19.6, 21.9) | 22.7 (21.6, 23.8) | 26.6 (25.6, 27.6) | 31.4 (30.6, 32.3) | 35.5 (34.8, 36.2) | 37.8 (37.2, 38.3) | |
| VL unsuppressed, no prior AIDS | 22.5 (21.4, 23.7) | 24.5 (23.4, 25.6) | 28.4 (27.5, 29.4) | 33.1 (32.4, 33.9) | 36.8 (36.2, 37.4) | 38.2 (37.7, 38.7) | |
| VL unsuppressed, prior AIDS | 17.1 (15.9, 18.3) | 18.9 (17.7, 20.1) | 22.7 (21.6, 23.8) | 27.7 (26.7, 28.7) | 32.1 (31.3, 33.0) | 35.2 (34.5, 35.9) | |
|
| |||||||
| Acquisition route: Injecting drug use (IDU) | VL suppressed, no prior AIDS | 14.2 (13.0, 15.4) | 15.8 (14.6, 17.0) | 19.4 (18.3, 20.6) | 24.3 (23.3, 25.4) | 28.9 (28.0, 29.9) | 32.2 (31.4, 33.0) |
| VL suppressed, prior AIDS | 9.9 (8.8, 11.1) | 11.3 (10.1, 12.5) | 14.3 (13.1, 15.5) | 18.7 (17.6, 19.9) | 23.2 (22.1, 24.3) | 26.7 (25.7, 27.7) | |
| VL unsuppressed, no prior AIDS | 11.2 (10.0, 12.4) | 12.7 (11.5, 13.8) | 15.9 (14.7, 17.1) | 20.5 (19.4, 21.7) | 25.1 (24.0, 26.1) | 28.5 (27.6, 29.5) | |
| VL unsuppressed, prior AIDS | 7.6 (6.6, 8.6) | 8.7 (7.6, 9.8) | 11.3 (10.2, 12.5) | 15.3 (14.1, 16.5) | 19.4 (18.3, 20.6) | 22.8 (21.7, 23.9) | |
|
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| Acquisition route: Heterosexual sex | VL suppressed, no prior AIDS | 25.0 (23.9, 26.0) | 26.9 (25.9, 27.9) | 30.8 (29.9, 31.6) | 35.2 (34.5, 35.9) | 37.9 (37.4, 38.4) | 38.7 (38.2, 39.2) |
| VL suppressed, prior AIDS | 19.3 (18.2, 20.5) | 21.3 (20.1, 22.4) | 25.2 (24.1, 26.2) | 30.1 (29.2, 31.0) | 34.3 (33.6, 35.1) | 36.9 (36.3, 37.5) | |
| VL unsuppressed, no prior AIDS | 21.1 (20.0, 22.3) | 23.1 (22.0, 24.2) | 27.0 (26.0, 28.0) | 31.8 (31.0, 32.7) | 35.8 (35.2, 36.5) | 37.8 (37.2, 38.3) | |
| VL unsuppressed, prior AIDS | 15.8 (14.6, 17.0) | 17.6 (16.4, 18.8) | 21.3 (20.2, 22.5) | 26.3 (25.3, 27.3) | 30.8 (29.9, 31.7) | 34.0 (33.2, 34.7) | |
|
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| Standardised | Overall: 34.5 (33.8, 35.2) | 18.2 (17.1, 19.4) | 21.3 (20.2, 22.4) | 26.2 (25.2, 27.2) | 32.1 (31.3, 32.9) | 36.2 (35.6, 36.9) | 38.0 (37.5, 38.5) |
|
| |||||||
| ART start: 2015–19 | CD4 count: | 0–49 | 50–99 | 100–199 | 200–349 | 350–499 | ≥500 |
|
| |||||||
| Acquisition route: Men having sex with men (MSM) | VL suppressed, no prior AIDS | 32.0 (31.2, 32.8) | 33.8 (33.0, 34.6) | 36.8 (36.2, 37.4) | 38.6 (38.1, 39.1) | 39.3 (38.8, 39.8) | 39.8 (39.3, 40.3) |
| VL suppressed, prior AIDS | 26.5 (25.4, 27.5) | 28.4 (27.5, 29.4) | 32.2 (31.3, 33.0) | 36.3 (35.7, 37.0) | 38.3 (37.8, 38.8) | 39.0 (38.5, 39.5) | |
| VL unsuppressed, no prior AIDS | 28.3 (27.3, 29.3) | 30.2 (29.3, 31.1) | 33.9 (33.1, 34.6) | 37.5 (36.9, 38.1) | 38.7 (38.2, 39.1) | 39.2 (38.8, 39.7) | |
| VL unsuppressed, prior AIDS | 22.6 (21.5, 23.7) | 24.6 (23.5, 25.6) | 28.5 (27.5, 29.4) | 33.2 (32.4, 34.0) | 36.8 (36.2, 37.4) | 38.2 (37.7, 38.7) | |
|
| |||||||
| Acquisition route: Injecting drug use (IDU) | VL suppressed, no prior AIDS | 19.3 (18.1, 20.5) | 21.2 (20.1, 22.3) | 25.1 (24.1, 26.2) | 30.0 (29.1, 30.9) | 34.3 (33.6, 35.0) | 36.9 (36.3, 37.5) |
| VL suppressed, prior AIDS | 14.2 (13.0, 15.4) | 15.9 (14.7, 17.1) | 19.5 (18.3, 20.7) | 24.4 (23.3, 25.5) | 29.0 (28.0, 29.9) | 32.3 (31.4, 33.1) | |
| VL unsuppressed, no prior AIDS | 15.8 (14.6, 17.0) | 17.5 (16.3, 18.7) | 21.3 (20.1, 22.4) | 26.2 (25.2, 27.3) | 30.7 (29.9, 31.6) | 33.9 (33.2, 34.7) | |
| VL unsuppressed, prior AIDS | 11.2 (10.1, 12.4) | 12.7 (11.5, 13.9) | 15.9 (14.7, 17.1) | 20.6 (19.4, 21.7) | 25.1 (24.1, 26.2) | 28.6 (27.6, 29.5) | |
|
| |||||||
| Acquisition route: Heterosexual sex | VL suppressed, no prior AIDS | 30.6 (29.8, 31.5) | 32.5 (31.7, 33.3) | 35.8 (35.2, 36.5) | 38.2 (37.7, 38.7) | 39.2 (38.7, 39.6) | 39.7 (39.2, 40.1) |
| VL suppressed, prior AIDS | 25.0 (24.0, 26.1) | 27.0 (26.0, 28.0) | 30.8 (30.0, 31.7) | 35.3 (34.6, 36.0) | 38.0 (37.4, 38.5) | 38.7 (38.2, 39.2) | |
| VL unsuppressed, no prior AIDS | 26.9 (25.9, 27.9) | 28.8 (27.9, 29.8) | 32.6 (31.7, 33.4) | 36.6 (36.0, 37.2) | 38.4 (37.9, 38.9) | 39.1 (38.6, 39.5) | |
| VL unsuppressed, prior AIDS | 21.2 (20.0, 22.3) | 23.1 (22.0, 24.2) | 27.1 (26.1, 28.1) | 31.9 (31.0, 32.7) | 35.9 (35.2, 36.5) | 37.8 (37.3, 38.4) | |
|
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| Standardised | Overall: 37.0 (36.5, 37.6) | 23.7 (22.7, 24.8) | 26.9 (25.9, 27.9) | 31.7 (30.9, 32.5) | 36.5 (35.9, 37.1) | 38.4 (37.9, 38.9) | 39.2 (38.7, 39.7) |